Archived News

Thursday, December 27, 2001 (TheStar) - THE palm oil industry sees betterprospects next year as its fundamentals remain intact – in particular,strong anticipation of higher crude palm oil (CPO) prices boostingearnings of plantation companies, and market talk that new World TradeOrganisation (WTO) member China plans to raise its palm oil import quotain 2002.Market players and analysts are highly optimistic the average CPO pricenext year will likely be around RM1,100 to RM1,150 per tonne, in contrastwith the difficult times this year when the price plunged to a year’s lowof RM663 per tonne in February. Prices have since recovered to aboutRM1,100 per tonne currently.They expect the MPOB's weighted average price for CPO this year to be atRM950 per tonne.PPB Oil Palms Bhd executive director and chief operating officer Khoo KheeMing said: “We look favourably to the CPO price remaining at the currentlevel of RM1,100 per tonne or perhaps better next year as, fundamentally,the situation has indeed improved with higher demand against weaker supplyin the final quarter of this year.’’He expressed confidence that next year “this most badly affected industry”would be able to reap the benefits of the cost-cutting exercises justundertaken.A spokesperson for a leading oil palm plantation company said: “Thedetermining factor for the pricing of CPO next year lies in the policiesand approaches to be undertaken by major importers, particularly China andIndia.’’She said she believed the inclusion of China as a member of the WTO wouldhave a major impact.Instead of its previous passive stance of having a fixed quota valid for acertain period (i.e. every three months), she sees China becoming anactive player, sourcing from various palm oil markets as and when itrequires the commodity.“Personally, I believe this would lead to lesser volatility in the marketand result in the price of CPO strengthening and stabilising in the nearfuture,’’ she said, adding that CPO sellers also expected the market to bebullish next year.“Of late, buyers from China |and India were believed to be asking forprompt oil, which could lead to shipment of oil in the immediate monthssuch as December this year and January next year.’’On the local front, KAF Research plantation analyst Noor Azwa Mohd Noorsaid the market scenario seemed fundamentally sound, with Malaysia’s palmoil production seen declining by 2.1% next year (against an estimated 8.9%growth in 2001), underpinned by continued replanting as well as theexpected tree stress period, which occurs every three to four years.There is also the possibility of weather changes due to the El Nino effectcausing a further reduction in production next year.Palm oil production for this year is estimated at 11.7 million tonnes.The US Department of Agriculture also forecast a tightening edible oilstocks scenario next year, led |by a slowdown in the rate of palm oilproduction.On the demand side, Azwa said she expected China, which is seen increasingits import quota of palm oil by 71% to 2.4 million tonnes next year, toemerge as Malaysia’s biggest palm oil buyer.KAF Research forecasts the |average CPO price at RM1,150 per tonne nextyear and RM1,200 per tonne in 2003.Azwa pointed out that since |1990, there were two occasions when the CPOprice increased by more than 20% year-on-year – in 1994 |and 1998.In both these years, plantation stocks outperformed the KLSE CompositeIndex (CI).If history repeats itself, she added, “plantation stocks should|outperform the CI next year.’’KAF Research’s top plantation picks are IOI Corp Bhd and PPB Oil Palms.

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 19 (Bernama) -- The cooperation between Malaysia andIndia in the palm oil sector will receive a boost with the arrival hereWednesday of a 24-member delegation from the Solvent Extractors'Association of India (SEA).

TOKYO (Nikkei) 12/21/2001--The Osaka Municipal Technical ResearchInstitute said Thursday that it has developed a way to mass-producecholesterol-lowering sterol ester from the byproducts generated in theproduction of soybean oil and other vegetable oils.

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 21 (Bernama) -- Malaysia will continue to talk to Indiain its efforts to further reduce the import duties for palm oil, PrimaryIndustries Minister, Datuk Seri Dr Lim Keng Yaik, said Friday.

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 21 (Bernama) -- The Ministry of Primary Industries hasextended the due date for oil palm replanting scheme to end of June 2002from Dec 2001.

Financial Times, London,12/20/2001 : Prices of some soft commodities areabout to take off, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). TheLondon-based research unit predicts double-digit increases in the price ofgrains and oilseeds next year and in 2003.

Kuala Lumpur (Reuters)12/18/2001 - Palm oil may get a boost as globalsunflower seed shortage tightens the edible oils complex, Asian traderssaid today.

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 14 (Bernama) -- The World Wide Fund for Nature Malaysia(WWF Malaysia) Friday expressed its full support to Primary IndustriesMinister Datuk Seri Dr Lim Keng Yaik's call to the oil palm industry toadopt more stringent and sustainable practices in developing newplantations.

CHENNAI, INDIA (Business Line) Dec. 14. - MIXED cropping, increasingproductivity, on-farm processing, value added products diversification andmarketing are key to survival of coconut farmers and processors in thecompetitive environment, according to Dr P. Rethinam, Chairman, CoconutDevelopment Board (CBD) and Executive Director Designate, Asian andPacific Coconut Community, Jakarta.

NEW DELHI, Dec 13 (Bernama) -- India's edible oil industry is to explorethe possibilities of collaboration with Malaysian Palm Oil PromotionCouncil (MPOPC) in the field of technology transfer and joint ventures inpalm cultivation and processing.

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 24 (Bernama) -- As the world's largest producer of palmoil, Malaysia has the potential to export more crude palm olein to India,said the immediate past president of the Solvent Extractors Association ofIndia (SEA) Sandeep Bajoria.

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 11 - Our final estimate on CPO production shows anupward revision of 10,000 tonnes to 1.045 million tonnes. This representsa month-on-month decline of 95,000 tonnes or 8.4 percent. The upwardrevision reflected a much smaller than expected decline of around twopercent or less than 10,000 tonnes in East Malaysia. This compares with anestimated decline fo 12.5 percent in Peninsular Malaysia.Additionally, the oil extraction rate (OER) was somewhat better. Thiswas most evident in Sabah. Total production for the first 11 monthsamounted to 10.83 million tonnes. There is a fairly good chance the wholeof this year's output will reach 11.7 million tonnes. This would be860,000 tonnes or 7.9 percent higher than last year.Reflecting the upward revision in production, the final estimate onend-November stocks of palm oil is revised to 1.31 million tonnes. This is30,000 tonnes lower than a month earlier. This level of stocks is deemedmanageable, particularly as it marks the reversal of a rising trend with asubstantial drawdown expected at the end of this month. In contrast and inline with our projections, stocks of PKO maintained their uptrend andreached an all-time new record high of an estimated 370,000 tonnes or some15,000 tonnes more than October.Stocks had built up to this burdensome level following anunprecedented period of accumulation starting from March last year whenstocks amounted to 107,900 tonnes. We view the PKO stocks situation asworrysome although it may not be a matter of great concern to PK producersand crushers in terms of absolute prices and margins. It cannot be deniedthat anaemic export performance was the main cause of the stocks buildup.PKO exports in September-October fell to 82,500 tonnes from 111,000tonnes a year ago. This is not surprising given that domestic offtake ofPKO has reached saturation level. Offtake by the oleochemical sector inJanuary-September amounted to 606,000 tonnes or unchanged from the sameperiod last year. In the local market PKO price had been traded atincreasing discount to CPO - from an average of 10-23 ringgit in Octoberto 30-45 ringgit in November and 75 ringgit last week. Production of PKdropped 11 percent to around 288,000 tonnes in November.CPO futures price meanwhile displayed a whip-saw pattern in the pastthree weeks. The February contract gained 85 ringgit in the week endedNovember 23 but lost practically all of it the following week. Last weekit rebounded 72 ringgit to settle at 1,169 ringgit after posting anintraday high of ,1200 ringgit on Friday. The gains would have been muchmore had the market not reacted bearishly to India's raising of the tariffvalues on palm oil on Friday afternoon.The December 7 announcement of new tariff values came eight days afteran official from the Finance Ministry denied to a wire service thatchanges were forth coming. Speculation and rumours of a revision were notunexpected considering the last revision on October 9 was made somenine-and-the-half weeks after the introduction of tariff values on palmoil on August 3.The latest values (previous in brackets) in US$/MT are: CPO 314 (286),RBDPO 341 (295), RBD OLN 349 (307) and Crude OLN 334 (298). As we had saidpreviously, Indian authorities shoud avoid generating market uncertaintiesand confusion. It is left to be seen whether the Central Board of Exiseand Customs has settled down to reviewing and revising tariff values on afixed periodic basis. The market is also keen to know the base period usedin determining the values. Perhaps it is too much to expect tranparencyand good governance. The latest tariff values raise the import dutiespayable by $18.20 (for CPO) to $42.50 (for RBD PO).