MARKET DEVELOPMENT
19-07-2004
USDA: Jul World Oilseed Production Rises To 379.1
15/7/04 CEDAR FALLS, Iowa (Dow Jones) - World oilseed productionestimates for 2004/05 were increased 776,000 tons in July to 379.1 milliontons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday in its Oilseeds:Situation and Outlook report.Increases were noted for rapeseed (Canada and the EU), sunflowerseed(Eastern Europe), and cottonseed (China and India), offsetting reducedsoybean production in the United States. Estimates of 2003/04 oilseedproduction rose 138,000 tons to 335.9 million tons this month. Productionincreases for India, Brazil, and Australia cottonseed led the way, theUSDA noted.Reports from Canada prompted an increase in both rapeseed and soybeanproduction for 2004/05. Soybean production is forecast to reach a record3.0 million tons due to improved yields and record plantings in 2004.Rapeseed production is also forecast to rebound to 7.0 million tons in2004/05 as area expansion, coupled with adequate soil moisture shouldincrease production.Romania's sunflowerseed production forecast for 2004/05 was increased300,000 tons this month. Production is forecast to reach 1.4 million tons,unchanged from last year's improved output.Forecast world oilseed exports for 2004/05 increased 306,000 tons thismonth to 78.0 million tons. Increased sunflowerseed exports from Romaniaand rapeseed from Canada accounted for much of the increase. Forecast2004/05 soybean exports declined only slightly this month as lower U.S.export volume was nearly offset by increases in South American andCanadian exports. Demand for imported U.S. soybeans by Canada is expectedto decline in 2004/05 in response to the increased availability ofdomestic soybeans. Canada's 2004/05 soybean import forecast was reduced150,000 tons to 300,000 tons this month and would be the lowest importlevel since 1998/99. The world soybean trade forecast for 2003/04 wasreduced 1.0 million tons this month in response to the recent slowdown inChina's import pace. Consequently, the South American export forecast for2003/04 were also reduced.Forecast protein meal production for 2004/05 was increased 155,000tons to 207.8 million tons in July. Increased rapeseed, sunflowerseed, andcottonseed crush led to the increase. Soybean meal production for 2004/05was reduced 166,000 tons to 144.0 million tons in response to reducedcrush forecasts for China and the United States this month. Protein mealtrade for 2004/05 was marginally higher this month, due to increases inforecast rapeseed and sunflowerseed meal exports. Protein meal productionin 2003/04 was reduced nearly 240,000 tons to 194.6 million tons. Reducedproduction in China, in response to an expected decline in soybean importsfor 2003/04, more than offset increased crush and soybean meal productionin the United States.Forecast world vegetable oil production for 2004/05 was increased166,000 tons this month to 105.6 million tons. Increases in production ofrapeseed, sunflowerseed and cottonseed oil more than offset reducedsoybean oil production. Forecast vegetable oil imports declined nearly200,000 tons in July, mainly due to a 200,000-ton reduction in China'simport forecast.
