Berita Arkib

(The opinions expressed in this article represent the views of leadingpalm oil market analyst Ivan Wong. They should not be seen as necessarilyreflecting the views of Reuters)KUALA LUMPUR, July 22 - Our estimate on palm oil supply and offtake inJune is very much in line with MPOB figures. On the supply side, CPOproduction rose 6.4 percent, or 70,500 tonnes, to 1.17 million tonnes.This is 5000 tonnes higher than our estimate and reflected primarily anincrease of 3.4 percent, or 14,700 tonnes, in East Malaysia. Production inSabah managed to post an increase of 3.8 percent, or 13,600 tonnes, withthe oil extraction rate (OER) remaining unchanged at 21.08 percent, asagainst our expectation to a decline. The oil extraction rate in Sarawakdropped to 20.61 percent from 21.39 percent in May and trimmed theincrease in CPO output to just 1.4 percent. On an annual basis, productionshrank four percent in the country. This was an improvement from acontraction of 6.3 percent in May and 7.4 percent in April. This recoveryin yields is expected to be extended into July with the contraction likelyto be around two percent. Yields are projected to reverse to positive fromAugust onwards. Production in July is tentatively estimated to register amonth-on-month increase of eight percent. This assumes no further declinesin the oil extraction rate in both Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia.Production in January-June at 5.957 million tonnes posted a negativegrowth of 2.3 percent and fell short of MPOB projections by 3.8 percent.The MPOB is nevertheless confident production for the whole year willregister a positive growth of one to two percent. MPOB's projection forthe whole year is achievable if the downtrend in the oil extraction ratein East Malaysia is not extended into the second-half year. It had droppedto 21.06 percent in the first-six months form 21.46 percent in thecorresponding period of last year. In contrast, the oil extraction rate inPeninsular Malaysia rose to 19.15 percent from 18.59 percent.Palm oil offtake fell some 55,000 tonnes to 1.05 million tonnes inJune. The decline was due entirely to disappointing exports which droppedto 886,400 tonnes. However, it would not surprise us if the final exportfigure is revised upward closer to 900,000 tonnes. On an annual basis,palm oil exports fell a hefty 161,700 tonnes in June. This was the biggestmonthly contraction so far this year and the fourth consecutive month ofshrinkage. Shipments in the three months to June contracted 335,000 tonnesto 2.785 million tonnes. This more than offset the growth of 222,800tonnes in the first quarter. January-June shipments consequently fell112,400 tonnes ot 5.532 million tonnes. The negative export performancewas due predominantly to a hefty drop of 455,000 tonnes, or 51.7 percent,to 425,400 tonnes in shipments to India, as India had slashed its importsof palm oil by 458,000 tonnes in January-June. Malaysia was thus the soleloser - its palm oil market share shrank to 26.3 percent from 12.4 percentin January-June last year and 58.3 percent two year ago.If loss of market share in India is not bad enough, Malaysia has alsoemerged as a major and growing market for Indonesian palm oil exports.Malaysia's palm oil imports in January-June surged 84.4 percent or 196,900tonnes to 430,300 tonnes. Given the poor export performance and robustimports, it is thus not difficult to understand why palm oil stocks inMalaysia at the end of June had risen to 1.211 million tonnes. Thisrepresents an increase of 165,600 tonnes from a month earlier and anincrease of 252,900 tonnes from end-March. Compared to June last year,stocks were 216,000 tonnes higher. Despite prospects of a marked recoveryin exports to 1.07 million tonnes this month, we see a further big buildupin stocks to above 1.3 million tonnes by the end of the month.India had drastically reduced its imports of edible oils by 941,400tonnes to 2.404 million tonnes during the eight-month period to June 2004.In April-June alone imports slumped 996,600 tonnes to 773,900 tonnes oraround 245,000 tonnes a month. This severe reduction was due primarily tothe negative response of the market to high price during March-May,especially when exorbilantly high import duties are taken intoconsideration. India cannot deny it has both tariff and non-tariffbarriers to discourage what it deems excessive imports. It raised theimport duty on RBD olein/RBD palm oil from 70 percent to 75 percent onJuly 8 and avoided the urgency to lower the tariff values on palm oil whenit conveniently ignored transacted values in recent weeks which had fallen18 percent since November last year. Vegoil price in India andinternational markets firmed in recent days on account of concerns overthe lack of rains in major oilseed growing areas in India in the pastthree weeks.

7/22/04 (Oilmandi) - KOLKATA-based All-India Oils and Seeds Foreign TradeAssociation has urged the Government not to change the specificationrelating to carotenoid value for the palm group of oils and has suggesteduniform rate of customs duty be levied on all types of palm oil.

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazilian soybean production will totalapproximately 63.5 million metric tons in the 2004-05 season(October-September), some 28.8% higher than the 49.3 million tons producedin the last drought- and disease-hit season, according to the localAgRural agricultural consultancy, Thursday.The estimate for the world's No. 2 crop is considerably lower than the66 million tons forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture last week.Planted area is expected to grow a modest 7% next season to 22.7million hectares, said a press release. This expansion will principallytake place in the frontier regions of the center-west and the northeastand in areas previously dedicated to ranching. In the south, farmers areexpected to favor planting soybeans instead of corn due to low prices andlimited market liquidity for the grain.Average yields are expected to rebound to 2,800 kilograms per hectareacross the vast soy belt, up 21% from the disastrous 2,315 kilograms perhectare registered last year, it said.Average yields would be even higher were it not for the ever-presentthreat of Asian rust and the low productivity of lands where soybeanhaven't been planted before.Output will be largest in the center-west state of Mato Grosso, whereproduction will rise 21% to 17 million tons.

7/22/2004 BUSINESS TIMES - GOLDEN Hope Plantations Bhd recently launched anew oil palm planting material that may further boost the company's palmoil production.

JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesia's PT Astra Agro Lestari (AALI.JK) saidThursday its crude palm oil output in the first six months of this yearrose 31% on year to 374,380 metric tons, due to an increase in fresh fruitbunch production.

KARACHI, July 22 Asia Pulse - Pakistan's edible oil imports were expectedto rise in the coming weeks as importers built stocks ahead of the Muslimfasting month of Ramadan, dealers said on Wednesday.

7/22/2004 (Business Wire) PALO ALTO, Calif.-- Reacting to the obesityepidemic, food consumers have stirred a global health revolution and areincreasingly demanding healthier oils and fats. Since eliminating fats canupset the nutritional balance, researchers are constantly trying todevelop innovative methods to improve the health properties of oils andfats.

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Asian cash palm oil prices were steadyWednesday, though products in Malaysia relinquished a bulk of theirearlier gains after private forecaster Palmis Management Bhd. issued abearish crop report in the afternoon.Palm oil prices in Malaysia ended in positive territory in the pastfive trading days.The market continued its uptrend in the morning session amidindications of renewed consumer buying interest, particularly from India.However, prices retreated slightly after private surveyor Palmisreleased its estimates for Malaysian palm oil production, exports andstocks in July.Palmis estimated July CPO output of around 1.265 million to 1.27million metric tons, up from the 1.17 million tons produced in June,traders said.Traders said Palmis estimated July palm oil exports at 1.065 millionto 1.07 million tons, up from 886,376 tons in June.Palmis pegged end-July stocks at 1.32 million to 1.33 million tons, upfrom 1.21 million tons at end-June, traders said.The figures were considered bearish as participants had been hopingfor exports of 1.1 million tons or more in July.Traders said Palmis' forecast of a rise in stocks in July and in thesubsequent months to as high as 1.57 million tons in September suggeststhat palm oil prices may remain on a downtrend over the longer term."The report is slightly bearish and is the reason why the market hascome off in the afternoon (session)," a trader said."But of course, there is a view in the market that exports may bebetter in the next few months because of the monsoon problems in India."There has been speculation in recent days that oilseeds production inIndia may fall in the coming marketing year because of a lack of rainfallduring the current monsoon season.Those concerns had triggered some fresh Indian purchases of Malaysianand Indonesian palm oil products in recent days, traders said.Rains at this time of the year are crucial to India's agriculturalproduction, including oilseeds.Traders said Indian buying interest continued Wednesday, though mainlyfor Indonesian CPO.There has also been speculation that China may soon increase itsimports of palm oil as domestic stocks in the country were declining andmargins for importers were improving because of higher local sellingprices.However, traders said there was still no clear indication of majorpurchases from China."Just because the local price increased, everyone assumes they willhave to buy. But it's still too early to tell," a trader said.Traders said only a significant increase in demand from China andIndia inthe coming months would help prevent stocks from building up to the levelsforecast by Palmis.In the cash market, CPO for July shipment was offered at 1,515 ringgit($1=MYR3.8) a ton, up MYR5 from Tuesday, delivered basis in SouthMalaysia.RBD palm oil for August shipment was offered at $425.00/ton, up $2.50from Tuesday. Other months were unchanged.RBD palm olein for August shipment was offered at $435.00/ton, also up$2.50 from Tuesday. Other months were unchanged.In Indonesia, RBD palm olein in Jakarta was offered at 4,350 rupiah($1=IDR8,980) a kilogram, up IDR50 from Tuesday.CPO in Medan was offered at IDR3,790/kg, up IDR47 from the tradedprice at Tuesday's government auction.

JAKARTA, July 21 Asia Pulse - The world's largest consumers of crude palmoil (CPO), China and India, have since May reduced imports of thatcommodity from Indonesia.

7/21/2004 BANGKOK POST - Three top Chinese companies plan to invest atleast 32 billion baht in the television manufacturing, cooking oil andenergy production sectors in Thailand, according to members of a Thaitrade mission that visited the country last week.

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China is gaining increasing clout as a large buyer ofgrains and oilseeds in the international market, but the scarcity ofreliable statistics on its domestic market is making it difficult forgrowers, traders and consumers to make correct decisions on market trends.A recently concluded grains conference in Beijing was a case in point.Those participants who were lucky to glean any numbers were told thedata were "tentative", "discussional", or worse still, "not for publicdistribution.""From my perspective, it would seem more appropriate for the rest ofthe world to rely on China for information it can provide, than be subjectto market speculation and balance sheets prepared by foreign analysts,"said Gerald A. Bange, chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board atthe U.S. Department of Agriculture, who was in Beijing last weekend toattend the gathering.In 2003, China's State Grain Administration applied to the NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission for permission to regularly report onstockpiles.That approval is yet to be given, an official at the grain agency toldDow Jones Newswires.According to a researcher working for an investment company inShanghai, most analysts now take USDA estimates on China's production andstocks as benchmarks."It would be good if the (Chinese) government could report figures(such as) grain stocks regularly, (so) we can compare them with USDAestimates and our own research," the researcher told Dow Jones Newswires.When contacted, an official at the International CooperationDepartment at the Ministry of Agriculture said grain output estimates havebeen previously published.Relying on outside information to gauge China's domestic situation canalso prove tricky sometimes."In a way, volatile price movements in the past few months reflectedsome irrational judgments made due to insufficient information," said ananalyst with an agriculture consulting company in Beijing.

MEDAN, N. Sumatra, July 21 Asia Pulse - PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk(JSX:UNVR) plans to expand its business and invest US$500 million indevelopment of its food, beverage and cosmetics industries in Indonesiaover the next 10 years, a spokesman said.