MARKET DEVELOPMENT
23-11-2002
PALM OIL UNDER PRESSURED AS KEY EXPORTS SLOW
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Palm oil prices are expected to comeunder pressure as the main producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, brace for afall in exports in November compared with October, traders said onTuesday.Although export usually decline between November and October, traderssaid Malaysian benchmark futures prices were vulnerable since they werecoming off 43-month highs.However, prices were also getting close to levels where buying supportwould kick in, they said.Traders said they expected a decline in demand from key importcountries, which are harvesting their own oilseed crops."China will get soybean, India will get the oilseed crop and Pakistanwill harvest cotton seed. That's why everybody is waiting for prices tocome down," one Kuala Lumpur dealer said.November palm oil exports from Malaysia, the world's largest producer,were likely to be 900,000 to 950,000 tonnes, down from 1.12 million tonnesin October, traders said.Indonesia was projected to export 600,000 tonnes of edible oils, whichinclude palm and coconut oil, in November compared with 717,721 tonnes inOctober, they said.Even though palm oil is nearly $140 cheaper than soyoil, many tradersfelt Malaysian crude palm oil prices needed to come down further to sparkfresh buying interest.Third-month Malaysian crude palm oil futures traded at a 43-month highof 1,607 ringgit a tonne last week, but by midday on Tuesday were down 16ringgit on the day at 1,556 ringgit ($409.47).But traders said they expected buyers to buoy the price around 1,500ringgit."It needs a correction so that prices can move to certain levels. Then,there will be demand. I think the market will test the 1,550 ringgitcrucial support today," the Kuala Lumpur dealer said."I think the world market is taking a rest. Demand will be lessfollowing two months of robust exports from Malaysia and Indonesia, whichmeans a lot of supply to the world market," he said.Freight brokers said confirmed freight bookings to India, the world'slargest edible oil consumer, had reached 320,000 to 350,000 tonnes so farfor November. They said they did not expect any addition fixtures.India, which normally buys up to 450,000 tonnes of palm oil a monthfrom Malaysia and Indonesia, imports roughly half of its annualrequirements for edible oils of around 10 million tonnes. It also buyssoyoil from Argentina and Brazil."India is taking a step back and I am not sure what it's going to donext month. But I think China will buy more palm oil in December and maytake around 150,000 tonnes," a Kuala Lumpur broker said."China still has around 150,000-180,000 tonnes left from this year'spalm oil import quotas," he said.China purchased 192,934 tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia in October.Confirmed shipment bookings to China from Malaysia and Indonesia havereached around 110,000 tonnes for November, said brokers.In Indonesia, traders said there was enough domestic supply to meetdemand during the Ramadan Muslim fasting month, when demand for cookingoil normally rises."Local supply is okay. But we still have trouble finding foreign buyerslately even though our prices are $5 to $10 cheaper than Malaysianprices," said one Jakarta trader.(US$1 = 3.8 ringgit)
