MARKET DEVELOPMENT
22-07-2004
Asian Cash Palm Oil Prices Firm; Palmis Data Trims
KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Asian cash palm oil prices were steadyWednesday, though products in Malaysia relinquished a bulk of theirearlier gains after private forecaster Palmis Management Bhd. issued abearish crop report in the afternoon.Palm oil prices in Malaysia ended in positive territory in the pastfive trading days.The market continued its uptrend in the morning session amidindications of renewed consumer buying interest, particularly from India.However, prices retreated slightly after private surveyor Palmisreleased its estimates for Malaysian palm oil production, exports andstocks in July.Palmis estimated July CPO output of around 1.265 million to 1.27million metric tons, up from the 1.17 million tons produced in June,traders said.Traders said Palmis estimated July palm oil exports at 1.065 millionto 1.07 million tons, up from 886,376 tons in June.Palmis pegged end-July stocks at 1.32 million to 1.33 million tons, upfrom 1.21 million tons at end-June, traders said.The figures were considered bearish as participants had been hopingfor exports of 1.1 million tons or more in July.Traders said Palmis' forecast of a rise in stocks in July and in thesubsequent months to as high as 1.57 million tons in September suggeststhat palm oil prices may remain on a downtrend over the longer term."The report is slightly bearish and is the reason why the market hascome off in the afternoon (session)," a trader said."But of course, there is a view in the market that exports may bebetter in the next few months because of the monsoon problems in India."There has been speculation in recent days that oilseeds production inIndia may fall in the coming marketing year because of a lack of rainfallduring the current monsoon season.Those concerns had triggered some fresh Indian purchases of Malaysianand Indonesian palm oil products in recent days, traders said.Rains at this time of the year are crucial to India's agriculturalproduction, including oilseeds.Traders said Indian buying interest continued Wednesday, though mainlyfor Indonesian CPO.There has also been speculation that China may soon increase itsimports of palm oil as domestic stocks in the country were declining andmargins for importers were improving because of higher local sellingprices.However, traders said there was still no clear indication of majorpurchases from China."Just because the local price increased, everyone assumes they willhave to buy. But it's still too early to tell," a trader said.Traders said only a significant increase in demand from China andIndia inthe coming months would help prevent stocks from building up to the levelsforecast by Palmis.In the cash market, CPO for July shipment was offered at 1,515 ringgit($1=MYR3.8) a ton, up MYR5 from Tuesday, delivered basis in SouthMalaysia.RBD palm oil for August shipment was offered at $425.00/ton, up $2.50from Tuesday. Other months were unchanged.RBD palm olein for August shipment was offered at $435.00/ton, also up$2.50 from Tuesday. Other months were unchanged.In Indonesia, RBD palm olein in Jakarta was offered at 4,350 rupiah($1=IDR8,980) a kilogram, up IDR50 from Tuesday.CPO in Medan was offered at IDR3,790/kg, up IDR47 from the tradedprice at Tuesday's government auction.
