MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Hits 1-Year High on Lower Output Expectations
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Hits 1-Year High on Lower Output Expectations
01/11/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains to notch a one-year high on Thursday, as traders and analysts cited lower-than-expected production among dominant Southeast Asian growers.
At the close, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 2 percent higher at 2,598 ringgit ($830) per tonne.
Earlier, prices touched 2,599 ringgit per tonne, a peak last seen on Oct. 25 last year.
"Export data came out down slightly, but people were not expecting much ... production is still slow and will be down this month," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.
Both Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for about 90 percent of the world's palm oil production, are entering their monsoon weather season, with many traders now forecasting lower annual output than initially expected.
A lower production cycle has been seen in falling yield data from both Malaysian and Indonesian palm plantation firms, an analyst added.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in October fell 0.5 percent to 1,521,928 tonnes from 1,530,292 tonnes shipped in September, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) said.
"Malaysian stocks are now back down at a manageable level," said a second Singapore-based analyst. "There is also potential for production to underwhelm in Indonesia and this is providing some price support, and may help with a technical squeeze.
"If a weather driven theme, it is going to be temporary. So you may expect a little correction into the first quarter of next year."
Total traded volume on the Malaysian benchmark stood at 33,954 lots of 25 tonnes each, under the usual 35,000 lots.
Technicals showed Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise to 2,630 ringgit per tonne, as it has broken above a resistance at 2,544 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Another supporting factor for palm oil, traders said, was expectations of a rise in biodiesel use next year in both Malaysia and Indonesia, with both countries likely to impose higher biodiesel blend requirements.
"Overseas investors are underestimating Indonesian biodiesel demand," said a Jakarta-based palm trader.
In other markets, Brent oil slipped towards $109 as the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy statement was less dovish than some had expected, prompting fears that an easy money regime that had supported commodities may soon end.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for December added 0.8 percent in early Asian trade. The most-active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange was slightly higher.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1012 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL NOV3 2620 +35.00 2578 2630 92
MY PALM OIL DEC3 2605 +48.00 2559 2608 1570
MY PALM OIL JAN4 2598 +51.00 2547 2599 20805
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 6292 +34.00 6264 6332 886694
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 7212 +14.00 7182 7240 927544
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 41.98 +0.36 41.43 42.12 8052
NYMEX CRUDE DEC3 96.84 +0.07 96.35 96.89 16019
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.1485 ringgit)
At the close, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 2 percent higher at 2,598 ringgit ($830) per tonne.
Earlier, prices touched 2,599 ringgit per tonne, a peak last seen on Oct. 25 last year.
"Export data came out down slightly, but people were not expecting much ... production is still slow and will be down this month," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.
Both Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for about 90 percent of the world's palm oil production, are entering their monsoon weather season, with many traders now forecasting lower annual output than initially expected.
A lower production cycle has been seen in falling yield data from both Malaysian and Indonesian palm plantation firms, an analyst added.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in October fell 0.5 percent to 1,521,928 tonnes from 1,530,292 tonnes shipped in September, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) said.
"Malaysian stocks are now back down at a manageable level," said a second Singapore-based analyst. "There is also potential for production to underwhelm in Indonesia and this is providing some price support, and may help with a technical squeeze.
"If a weather driven theme, it is going to be temporary. So you may expect a little correction into the first quarter of next year."
Total traded volume on the Malaysian benchmark stood at 33,954 lots of 25 tonnes each, under the usual 35,000 lots.
Technicals showed Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise to 2,630 ringgit per tonne, as it has broken above a resistance at 2,544 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Another supporting factor for palm oil, traders said, was expectations of a rise in biodiesel use next year in both Malaysia and Indonesia, with both countries likely to impose higher biodiesel blend requirements.
"Overseas investors are underestimating Indonesian biodiesel demand," said a Jakarta-based palm trader.
In other markets, Brent oil slipped towards $109 as the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy statement was less dovish than some had expected, prompting fears that an easy money regime that had supported commodities may soon end.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for December added 0.8 percent in early Asian trade. The most-active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange was slightly higher.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1012 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL NOV3 2620 +35.00 2578 2630 92
MY PALM OIL DEC3 2605 +48.00 2559 2608 1570
MY PALM OIL JAN4 2598 +51.00 2547 2599 20805
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 6292 +34.00 6264 6332 886694
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 7212 +14.00 7182 7240 927544
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 41.98 +0.36 41.43 42.12 8052
NYMEX CRUDE DEC3 96.84 +0.07 96.35 96.89 16019
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.1485 ringgit)