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VEGOILS-Palm Oil Hits 1-Year High on Lower Output Expectations
calendar01-11-2013 | linkReuters | Share This Post:

01/11/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains to notch a one-year high on Thursday, as traders and analysts cited lower-than-expected production among dominant Southeast Asian growers.

At the close, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 2 percent higher at 2,598 ringgit ($830) per tonne.

Earlier, prices touched 2,599 ringgit per tonne, a peak last seen on Oct. 25 last year.

"Export data came out down slightly, but people were not expecting much ... production is still slow and will be down this month," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

Both Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for about 90 percent of the world's palm oil production, are entering their monsoon weather season, with many traders now forecasting lower annual output than initially expected.

A lower production cycle has been seen in falling yield data from both Malaysian and Indonesian palm plantation firms, an analyst added.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in October fell 0.5 percent to 1,521,928 tonnes from 1,530,292 tonnes shipped in September, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) said.

"Malaysian stocks are now back down at a manageable level," said a second Singapore-based analyst. "There is also potential for production to underwhelm in Indonesia and this is providing some price support, and may help with a technical squeeze.

"If a weather driven theme, it is going to be temporary. So you may expect a little correction into the first quarter of next year."

Total traded volume on the Malaysian benchmark stood at 33,954 lots of 25 tonnes each, under the usual 35,000 lots.

Technicals showed Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise to 2,630 ringgit per tonne, as it has broken above a resistance at 2,544 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Another supporting factor for palm oil, traders said, was expectations of a rise in biodiesel use next year in both Malaysia and Indonesia, with both countries likely to impose higher biodiesel blend requirements.

"Overseas investors are underestimating Indonesian biodiesel demand," said a Jakarta-based palm trader.

In other markets, Brent oil slipped towards $109 as the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy statement was less dovish than some had expected, prompting fears that an easy money regime that had supported commodities may soon end.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for December added 0.8 percent in early Asian trade. The most-active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange was slightly higher.

  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1012 GMT          

  Contract        Month    Last   Change     Low    High  Volume                                                     
  MY PALM OIL      NOV3    2620   +35.00    2578    2630      92                                                     
  MY PALM OIL      DEC3    2605   +48.00    2559    2608    1570                                                     
  MY PALM OIL      JAN4    2598   +51.00    2547    2599   20805                                                     
  CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4    6292   +34.00    6264    6332  886694                                                     
  CHINA SOYOIL     MAY4    7212   +14.00    7182    7240  927544                                                     
  CBOT SOY OIL     DEC3   41.98    +0.36   41.43   42.12    8052                                                     
  NYMEX CRUDE      DEC3   96.84    +0.07   96.35   96.89   16019            

  Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne                                                                     
  CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound                                                                               
  Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne                                                        
  Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel                                                                                   
  ($1 = 3.1485 ringgit)