Berita Arkib
07-12-2001
IVAN WONG COMMENTS ON MALAYSIAN PALM OIL
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 6 - Weather continued to be good for both cropdevelopment and harvesting for the second consecutive month in November.Excessive rains in some areas, particularly in the East Coast region ofPeninsular Malaysia and some parts in East Malaysia had impactedharvesting and oil extraction rates slightly.Overall CPO production in November turned out as expected at an estimated1.035 million tonnes. This is 105,000 tonnes or 9.3 percent lower thanOctober. On an annual basis production was down 11.2 percent or moresevere than the contraction of 3.6 percent in October. For the 11 monthsto November, production amounted to 10.825 million tonnes. This is 17,000tonnes less than output for the whole of last year. With one more month togo total production this year might just reach 11.68 million tonnes. Thiswould be 840,000 tonnes or 7.7 percent more than last year.Palm oil offtake is estimated at 1.1 million tonnes in November. This is15,000 tonnes up on our previous estimate and nearly 60,000 tommes morethan a month earlier. Exports alone are estimated to have increased 45,000to 945,000 tonnes. This is also nearly 50,000 tonnes more than a yearearlier. During the month some traders had high expectations that exportswould reach a million tonnes as reported by wireservices.These traders had pinned their hopes on robust offtake by Pakistan andIndia. They unrealistically expected Pakistan to take at least 200,000tonnes palm oil but the actual figure was around 160,000 tonnes comprisingsome 130,000 tonnes from Malaysia and an estimated 30,000 tonnes fromIndonesia. Stocks of palm oil dropped 40,000 tonnes to an estimated 1.3million tonnes at end-November. This is little changed from our previousestimate. Compared to the all-time record high level registered a yearearlier stocks were down a hefty 225,000 tonnes.During the week beginning November 19, CPO futures trended upward on fourconsecutive days on concerted speculative buying that forced shortists tocover when stops were hit. However, the week's gains of 85 ringgit (basisFebruary) were fully erased the following week on long liquidation profittaking arising from increasing likelihood palm oil exports for Novemberwould not come close to a million tonnes coupled with sluggish new exportsales.Notwithstanding the steady to firm undertone in South America SBO cashmarket, CBT soya complex provided hardly any lead for the vegetable oilsmarket until the last day of the month. The palm oil market reactedquickly on Monday with futures setting the pace on renewed speculativebuying linked to perceptions that a demand-led bull run would soon be onthe way. In two days CPO futures chalked up gains of up to 88 ringgit withthe February contract hitting an intraday high of 1,185 ringgit or sixringgit short of last month's high posted on November 23. The upwardmomentum fizzled out yesterday on lack of follow through in the cashmarket.World palm oil fundementals for November-December have hardly changed inrecent weeks. But looking beyond end-December into March/April next yearthe fundementals for palm oil and other major edible oils willincreasingly favour producers-exporters. The risk-reward ratio alsofavours traders with long positions and consumers who extend their forwardcoverage. China holds the trump card as to whether CPO futures would testthis year's high of 1,315 ringgit recorded on August 8. Our final Novemberestimates will be released on December 11 ahead of the MPOB Report. Thefinal report for this year is scheduled on Friday ahead of the longEid-Fitr holidays. MDEX will be closed for three days Monday-Wednesday,December 17-19.(The opinions expressed in this article represent the views of the authoronly. They should not be seen as necessarily reflecting the views ofReuters)
07-12-2001
PALM OIL RISE BOOSTS MALAYSIAN PLANTATION STOCKS
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian plantation stocks such as SimeDarby rose on Tuesday as investors bet a surge in palm oil prices willmake the sector one of the fastest growing in 2002. The Kuala LumpurPlantations Index rose as much as 1.24 percent to 1.586.57, its highestsince mid-September, taking its gain since early October to more than 12percent as palm oil prices have surged.For 2001, the index of 40 stocks boasts a 15.8 percent gain comparedwith the benchmark Composite Index's 5.5 percent decline.Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) futures have soared by over a third inthe past two months, boosted by stronger-than-expected demand from keybuyers India, China and Pakistan as worries about high stockpiles haveeased.Participants in the country's commodity and stock markets are upbeatabout prospects for palm oil prices for the coming year."We continue to be positive that the CPO prices will not fall to itsprevious low and thus we are maintaining our average price forecast forfiscal year 2002 at 1,150 ringgit per tonne, a 32 percent increaseyear-on-year," CIMB Research said in a report.The benchmark third-month February futures contract was up 14 ringgitat 1,176 ringgit ($306.84) per tonne at 0357 GMT, extending a 55 ringgitgain on Monday.Palm oil traders are even more bullish.Dorab Mistry, a leading Indian trader, told Reuters on Monday that CPOfutures will "definitely" soar to a four-month high of 1,300 ringgit bythe first quarter of 2002.And if China raises its import quota of palm oil as expected to 2.4million tonnes in 2002, from 1.4 million this year, prices could hit 1,600ringgit, Mistry said.
05-12-2001
Brazil gives BRR1 billion in ag financing to boost
SAO PAULO, 12/4/2001 (Dow Jones)- The Brazilian government will releasethis month one billion reals ($1=BRR2.49) in financing for the agriculturesector, an official at federally run Banco do Brasil said Monday.By the new year, Banco do Brasil intends to have made available BRR6.7billion in credit for farmers since the end of July.That total should swell to BRR10.5 billion by the end of June 2002, saidRicardo Conceicao, head of the bank's rural debt department.Brazil's government has earmarked about BRR14.7 billion for agriculturecredits for the 2001-02 season, up 30% on the BRR11.3 billion in financingprovided in 2000-01.However, authorities have said total financing this season could grow toBRR16.6 billion as more funds become available.By increasing funding for the agriculture sector, the government hopes toboost the country's grains and oilseeds output to more than 100 millionmetric tons.Brazil is currently wrapping up its 2000-01 grains and oilseeds crop,which is seen coming in at a record 99.2 million tons, up 19.2% on lastseason's output of 83.25 million tons, according to the National FoodSupply Agency, or Conab.Initial forecasts peg next season's crop at an unprecedented 100.3 milliontons.Of total financing for the 2001-02 crop, BRR11.4 billion will be providedat a fixed rate of 8.75% a year, while the remaining BRR3.3 billion willbe issued at a variable rate of interest, depending on the source of thefunds.While the bulk of the financing is for grains, oilseed and root vegetablesfarming, about BRR700 million is also included for the 2002-03 coffeecrop.
05-12-2001
Malaysia palmoil seen at 1,300 rgt in Q1 '02
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Malaysia's crude palm oil futures are setto rebound to four-month highs at 1,300 ringgit or $342 a tonne in thefirst quarter of 2002 on tight soyoil supplies and steady demand frommajor buyers such as India, a leading Indian trader said."CPO index will definitely go to 1,300 ringgit and remain there. It shouldgo there very quickly," Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej InternationalLtd, told Reuters in an interview at the weekend.Malaysia's crude palm oil futures touched 1,613 ringgit ($424.47) a tonne(third-month basis) in May 9, 1999. By midday on Monday, benchmarkthird-month February contract firmed 28 ringgit to 1,125 ($296.1) tonne.Volume was slow at 959 lots.Another bullish factor will be China, which is expected to import 2.4million tonnes of palm oil in 2002 at low tariffs under atariff-rate-quota system following its entry to the World TradeOrganisation (WTO), Mistry said.China's palm oil imports quotas stood at 1.4 million tonnes this year. Itbought 1.02 million tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia in 2000, up from800,135 tonnes in 1999."They will utilise the palm oil quota first. In that case if the Chinesebegin to buy palm oil, we could go to 1,600 ($421.11) ringgit," saidMistry, who was in Malaysia for an industry talk.Mistry said China was likely to use its soyoil import quotas when prices,now at premiums of around $20-$30/tonne to palmoil, softened in April withthe start of South American soybean crop."Between now and the South American season which starts in April, palm oilhas very little competition. But (it) will remain the case if palm oilremains at $20-$30 discount to bean oil FOB," he added.
05-12-2001
Pahang to gazette 100,000ha
KUANTAN, Tuesday, December 4, 2001 (The Star) - Pahang will gazetteanother 100,396ha of land as forest reserve to add to the 2.1 millionhectares already gazetted in an effort to provide more tree cover.Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob said the government wanted more areasto be protected under the various environmental laws.“The government is concerned with the depletion of forest reserves and toshow our seriousness to safeguard the environment, the government willcontinue with the policy in the years to come.“In the effort to provide more tree cover, the government has included thecreation of palm oil and rubber plantations throughout the state.“These trees are as good as forest trees to provide the greening as partof the government’s strategy,†Adnan said recently.He said Pahang still stands as one of the states with the most tree cover,adding that about 57.12% of the state was covered with forest andplantations.He said that the government would continue with the sustainable forestmanagement as stipulated by the National Forestry Council.He said that under the Eighth Malaysian Plan, the government would onlyfell 10,700 trees as decided by the council.“We are in the midst of providing incentives for the private sector toventure into such plantations on a commercial basis,†he added.To improve logging techniques, Adnan said the government would imposelogging methods that cause minimal environmental damage.He said the time had come for loggers to shift to other logging methods toreduce the environmental damage.
05-12-2001
Pressure from anti-GM lobby increases as wild GM r
USA, (The Express) December 01, 2001 - PRESSURE for an end tocontroversial large-scale trials of GM crops intensified yesterday afterclaims that a field of GM "weeds" had been discovered.The oilseed rape covering at least 15 acres was found at a site usedearlier this year in one of the Government's GM trials.The programme is designed to test the environmental impact of the powerfulherbicides used with modified crops.The plants, in a field near Grantham, Lincolnshire, may have grown fromseeds spilled when the crop was harvested - and a large proportion are nowin flower thanks to a mild autumn.This has fuelled fears that they could cross-pollinate with andcontaminate nearby conventional oilseed rape and wild relatives.The Government last night ordered an inquiry into the claims. Unwanted GMplants would have to be destroyed.Campaigners Friends of the Earth yesterday called on the Government toprosecute the biotech company involved, Aventis.FoE spokesman Pete Riley said: "The biotech industry has gone too far, toofast and is now out of control."It's time the Government said enough is enough and called an immediatehalt to this dangerous experiment."Aventis last night insisted it had done nothing wrong. A spokesman said itwas allowed "to encourage any seeds dropped to germinate so we can go inlater and destroy them" .
05-12-2001
Siemens Aims To Share Oil Palm Biomass Expertise W
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 29 (Bernama) -- Siemens AG, which has stamped its markbuilding large-scale power generation projects using petroleum, coal andhydro, wants to share its oil palm biomass expertise to produce energy inMalaysia, says a company official.
05-12-2001
West Asia important market for palm oil
Kuala Lumpur, (New Straits Times )11/30/2001 - NINETEEN countries in WestAsia are important markets for Malaysian palm oil, Deputy PrimaryIndustries Minister Datuk Anifah Aman said.He said among the countries are Algeria, Egypt, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq,Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Oman and Tunisia.He said between 1996 and 2000, 5.33 million tonnes of palm oil had beenexported to these destinations compared with 4.63 million tonnes to Europeand 0.65 million tonnes to the United States.Epypt is the highest importer among the West Asian countries with 400,000tonnes a year followed by Turkey (160,000 tonnes) and Saudi Arabia(140,000 tonnes).Answering a question by Jamilah Ibrahim, he said palm oil prices had risenfrom RM700 to RM800 per tonne early this year to about RM1,000 per tonnenow.
30-11-2001
MALAYSIA'S PALM OIL CHOPPY, 1,200 SEEN CRUCIAL
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The following are factors likely toaffect the performance of Malaysian palm oil futures on Wednesday:* Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soyoil futures settled down 0.07 to0.20 cent per lb on Tuesday, with December down 0.20 cent at 16.09 andJanuary down 0.16 cent at 16.26 cents.* One technical analyst in Kuala Lumpur pegged key support at 1,120ringgit in Malaysia's crude palm oil futures."It is crucial for the market to hold above 1,120 ringgit from todayonwards. Many technical indicators are already forming a negativepattern," the analyst said."If the market can break the resistance levels of 1,170 and 1,191 andinstead trade below 1,120, the downside risk will increase," she said.Malaysian crude palm oil ended mostly lower on Tuesday, but withbenchmark February rebounding on technicals and talk the government hasselected firms to be allowed to export CPO without duty.Third-month February futures was down one ringgit at 1,142 ringgit($300.53) a tonne. Volume was heavy at 2,318 lots.Malaysia said earlier this month it would allow duty-free export of 1.3million tonnes of crude palm oil in 2002 to boost the market and helpreduce stocks.This year, the government allowed seven companies to export one milliontonnes of CPO without duty. It said firms which had used up their quotafor 2001 could apply for a new one and would be given permission toutilise next year's allocation starting in December.Malaysia imposes an export tax on CPO on a graduated scale starting at10 percent on prices above 600 ringgit in order to protect itsrefiners.
30-11-2001
PAKISTAN, INDIA PALM OIL DEMAND FIRM
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Pakistan's palm oil imports may reach220,000 tonnes a month over the next few months because of the prospect ofexports to neighbouring Afghanistan and a reduced cottonseed oil crop,traders said on Monday.Pakistan normally buys 80,000 tonnes of palm oil a month from theworld's largest producers, Malaysia and Indonesia."We expect strong demand to continue until March. When things aresettling down, Pakistan will be exporting a lot of oil to Afghanistan,"said one trader in Malaysia."About 70 percent of the oil shipped to Pakistan will come fromMalaysia and I expect imports to reach 220,000 tonnes in November andDecember each," he added.Some traders dealing with Pakistan said rising imports also stemmedfrom several purchases by the United Nations to help the Afghan refugees.Other factors included a smaller local cottonseed oil crop, which isexpected to fall 50,000 tonnes to 400,000 this year, and better demandduring the Muslim Ramadan fasting month.The U.N. said on Sunday Afghan refugees had started returning from Iranto their homes in the west of the country but tens of thousands were stilltrying to flee from the east into Pakistan.The United States has led a war to punish the Taliban for harbouringSaudi-born millionaire Osama bin Laden who is accused of masterminding theSeptember 11 attacks on New York and Washington that killed nearly 4,000people.
30-11-2001
Chinese demand may create stronger prices for soyb
11/21/2001,(Southeast Farm Press) - One need only look at the current U.S.soybean supply and demand balance sheet to see that the 1996 Freedom toFarm legislation isn't working as intended, says Gerald A Bange, chairmanof the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board."Soybean production for 2001-02 is forecast at 2.834 million bushels, andthis is coming off a year when the average market price was $4.55 perbushel," says Bange. "Freedom to Farm isn't working because farmersapparently are not responding to market signals. And these market signalsare being buffered somewhat by government programs." Export situationTurning to soybean exports, Bange says U.S. farmers should be able to holdsteady at one million bushels. "For some years now we've been estimatingsoybean exports at one billion bushels. We finally reached that number in2000-2001, and we're expecting to hold exports at essentially the samenumber for 2001-2002."Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans are expected to increase from 240 millionbushels to about 255 million bushels, he says, but a stronger market pricestill is expected for U.S. producers in 2001-02."The range for the average market price is $4.40 to $5.40 per bushel, sowe should see a price of about $4.90 per bushel. Even with our endingstocks actually increasing, we still should see a stronger price. And muchof this is due to the current demand for soybeans coming out of China,"says the economist.The current downward pressure being seen in the soybean market can beattributed to several factors, says Bange. "The Brazilians are talkingabout a 45 million ton crop. This is the crop that will be harvested afterthe first of next year. If they don't have weather problems, theBrazilians will have a big crop, and that will have an impact on prices.They've had several years of good weather, and if it happens again, we'llsee a lot of competition from Brazil," he says.Another factor causing concern in the markets is China's position onGMO's, adds Bange. "Right now, China is making rumblings about GMO's.China is a major soybean importer, and when they say they're thinkingabout which GMO's to allow into their country, the entire market becomesnervous and prices are affected."Since about 1980 or 1981, U.S. soybean stocks have decreased gradually, hesays, but U.S. prices have not risen accordingly."If we look at the market in 1985-86, very low prices were associated witha very high stock level. Now, we have relatively low stocks, but the priceis still low. With ending stocks for 2000-2001 at 240 million bushels, wehave an average market price of $4.55 per bushel or an 8.5 percentstocks-to-use ratio. South America"But we have to look at the impact of Brazilian and Argentine stocks toget the whole picture. If you count these stocks at about the same timethat you're counting U.S. stocks, you'll see that the worldwide stockslevel has risen sharply. We can't look only at what is happening in theUnited States."China, says Bange, has become a major importer of soybeans, and this hasoccurred since the mid-1990s. "In 1993 and 1994, China was importingvirtually nothing. Now, they're importing about 14 million metric tons.Given what is occurring in Brazil, and what has happened with U.S.production, this market really would be in the pits were it not forChina's imports. It's bad enough as it is, but it would be much worse ifChina wasn't taking these 14 million tons off the market."This 14 million tons isn't coming from the United States alone. Abouthalf of it comes from the United States and the other half comes fromelsewhere in the world. For awhile, China was importing oil. Now, theyprovide their own labor and press the beans themselves." Two primaryreasonsThere are two primary reasons China is importing so many soybeans, saysBange. One is for feed consumption -- as their incomes have risen, theChinese have put more soybeans into animal feeds."The Chinese have built a lot of processing plants along the coastalareas, and they're importing a lot of beans for those plants. They alsohave a nutrition program where they're feeding soymilk in the schools.They've expanded their processing capacity, so we think they'll be in thesoybean business for some time. If, for whatever reason, they cut off this14 million tons of imports, it would have a devastating impact on U.S. andworld markets."Brazil's soybean production is worrisome for the U.S. market, says Bange.Brazil is anticipating a production of 40 million tons for 2001-02. Thisis up from about 15 million tons in 1985-86."Brazil is moving its production -- they're trading off their morevaluable land for cheaper, more productive land. And Brazilians aren'thappy with U.S. farm programs. A formal complaint to WTO already is inprogress. Brazil has almost doubled its soybean production in the past 10years."The collapse of the real -- Brazil's form of currency -- also has had aneffect on the soybean markets. Since July of 2000, the real has fallen 49percent against the U.S. dollar. A weak real means that their ability tocompete with the United States is greater. The Brazilian price isimproving because of this weak currency, and that gives them a competitiveadvantage. They can undercut us.Argentina, says Bange, also is producing more soybeans. "When we look atthe combined increase of Brazil and Argentina versus the United States,it's been phenomenal."Farmland values, he says, are beginning to hamper U.S. producers' abilityto compete in a world market. "USDA has done a fair amount of research tohelp determine who can produce the cheapest soybeans. In terms of variablecosts of production, U.S. producers can beat competitors `hands down.' Ourproblem is that land values are being capitalized into the cost equation."Overall, our competitors can produce more cheaply because we're factoringin high land values. Land values have been rising, so this is causing somedifficulty for U.S. producers. As the cost of land rises, it goes backinto the cost of production. And though we can beat our competitors onvariable costs, we can't beat them on total costs."
30-11-2001
Global oilseeds output may scale new peak in 2001-
MUMBAI, Nov. 26 (Business Line) - GLOBAL production of major oilseeds islikely to reach a new high in 2001-02 on the back of record soyabeanoutput, so will oilseeds crush. This will lead to record protein mealproduction, consumption and trade in the current year. World vegetable oilproduction, consumption and trade will also witness expansion but at aslower rate leading to drawdown of stocks.On current reckoning, production of major oilseeds and oil-bearingmaterial is forecast to record 323 million tonnes in 2001-02, up from 311mt last year. A 9 mt increase in soyabean output to an unprecedented 182.5mt, a 3 mt increase in cottonseed to 36.5 mt and 2.5 mt in groundnut to33.7 mt will be partially offset by lower sunflowerseed and rapeseed crop,according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).Latest estimate suggests soyabean output in the US will reach anunprecedented 79.5 mt, up from 75 mt of 2000-01, while forecast for Braziland Argentina (crop to be harvested in February 2002) will scale newhighs, continuing the consistent rise of the last few years.Brazil's soyabean production for 2001-02 is forecast at 41.5 mt (38.4 mt)and Argentina 28 mt (26.7 mt). Both China (15.3 mt) and India (5.6 mt)have more or less maintained their production volumes.Global oilseeds crush this year will expand to 263.5 mt (255 mt)encouraged by 7.5 mt increase in soyabean crush to 155 mt Together withhigher cottonseed and groundnut crushing, global protein meal productionis slated to reach 182.2 mt, of which soyameal will account for 123 mt.In case of major vegetable oils, the USDA has forecast production for2001-02 at 90.6 mt (88.7 mt) and consumption at 90.7 mt (88.2 mt). Acombined 1.1 mt reduction in rapeseed oil and sunoil production will bemore than offset by higher soyabean, palm, groundnut and cottonseed oilsproduction.Palm oil production: Malaysia national monthly average rainfall in the2001 third quarter fell below normal for only the second time in the last10 quarters.Additionally, excess precipitation in November 2000-January 2001 is likelyto reduce palm oil production prospects.As high yields are typically associated with above-average precipitation,the reduced third quarter has reduced palm oil yield prospects, USDA hassuggested.During 2001-02, Malaysian palm oil production is forecast at 12.2 mt, upfrom 11.9 mt of last year when the average yield was 4.06 tonnes perhectare. Malaysian palm oil area is currently estimated at 3.31 millionhectares and the yield is expected to be lower than last year's.