MARKET DEVELOPMENT
22-08-2001
Oilseed margins up on higher soy meal demand and e
The US Oilseed industry is slowly getting out of its slump as oilseedprocessors report improved margins. Higher demand for meals and oils andrecent crushing rationalization have improved industry fundamentals.Producers are optimistic that the rest of 2001 and 2002 will show gains.Over the last year, the US soybean processing industry has been reducingits total available capacity because of depressed processing marginsresulting from oversupplied soybean oil stocks. But with the results ofcrushing capacity rationalization and the increase in soybean meal demand,crush margins have now been slowly improving over the last several months,says John Ferris, market analyst and managing editor at the JacobsenPublishing Company, which provides oilseeds, oils and fats market analysesin the business-to-business Web site by-product.com.The soybean crush for June was up 8.6 percent from the year-ago period,but down 3.3 percent from May at 3.85 million tons, according to the USCensus Bureau. The crush figure is higher than expected from tradersexpectations at 3.47 million tons to 3.48 million tons. The cottonseedcrush is at 231,000 tons compared to May s 217,000 tons. Meanwhile,soybean oil stocks at the end of June were down 3 percent from May at 2.57billion pounds, while soybean meal stocks were up 18 percent from May at301,340 tons.Soybean crushing margins improved about 10 cents per bushel to 85 cents ina seasonally slow period as moves to reduce industry capacity haveimproved returns for this battered business, says a Prudential Securitiesanalyst. With decreased domestic crashing capacity, meal and oil pricesare up due to better demand and [with] less competing oil supplies,crushing margins can even move to above $1 per bushel in the fall, thefirst time in about four years, the analyst adds.The outlook for the remainder of this year and next appears positive assoft seed supply, such as sunflower and rapeseed, tighten, and demand forsoybean oil and meal is projected to increase. There has been a lot oftalk about significant demand increases for US soybean products andgreater dependency on soybeans in general, says Holger Matthey, oilseedsanalyst at the Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) atIowa State University. Some in the industry are saying that global supplyfundamentals for soybeans and products have tightened, and demand isstrong. The outlook is strong, especially for oils for next year, Mr.Matthey adds.Greater use of vegetable oils in renewable fuels will also help, says ADM.Also, China s entry in the World Trade Organization is another factor thatcould boost agricultural trade. China had historically been a largeimporter of US soybean oil. However, it dramatically cut back vegetableoil imports as the country built up its own oilseed processing industryover the past two to three years, notes Mr. Ferris. That was one keyfactor in ultimately forcing the US crashing industry to rationalize itscapacity, he explains.
