10/08/2011 (WorldCrop.com) - Global biofuel mandates will soar to 60 billion US gallons (227 billion litres) by 2022, compared to production of around 26.5 billion US gallons (bg) in 2010, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Biofuel mandates 2022 (billion gallons) | Source: OECD, FAO, various |
Global biofuel mandates will soar to 60 billion US gallons by 2022, according to the IEA

While some of the new capacity required to meet the targets will produce advanced biodiesel or ethanol using cellulosic feedstocks, conventional ethanol from corn and sugar will remain the mainstay – raising serious questions about the impact on these markets.

Coarse grains are expected to remain the major ethanol feedstock, according the Organisation of Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), but growth should slow after 2015 when the US mandate for Conventional Renewable Fuels reaches its maximum. Almost 40% of the increase in global ethanol production is expected to be based on sugar cane, mainly from Brazil.

About fifty countries already have biofuel mandates or targets according to the IEA, and more are planned. The Global Renewable Fuels Alliance (GRFA) expects world ethanol production to hit 22.9 bg this year, up over 3% on 2010. Of this, the US is expected to produce 13.5 bg – well over half the total. In 2010 ethanol absorbed a record 39.4%, or nearly five billion bushels of corn in the US, (one bushel makes 2.5-2.8 gallons). The upcoming 2012 overall US biofuels target of 15.2bg includes 2bg of advanced biofuels, representing a sharp 48% jump on 2011.

In the longer term, the US is moving towards a 36bg overall biofuels target by 2022 – by far the largest worldwide. The EU-27 is bound by the Renewable Energy Directive, which specifies a10% renewables content by 2020 compared to 5.75% now – two thirds of which will come from biofuels, and the rest electric vehicles. Brazil has a mandated ethanol blend of 18-20% this year, down from 25% in 2010 after ethanol supplies tightened on rising global sugar prices.

About 90% of ethanol production is currently concentrated in the US, Brazil, and the EU, although this will change if development programs in other countries, such as China and India are successful. China plans to expand its current, nine province 10% ethanol mandates to a nationwide 15% biofuels mandate by 2020 – but aware of the impact on food prices, Beijing has put a moratorium on expanded use of corn for ethanol and is promoting other non-food feedstocks, such as cassava, sweet sorghum, and jatropha. India has a 20% ethanol mandate in place for 2017, but it is widely expected to fall short.

Biomass based second generation ethanol is expected to expand towards the end of the coming decade. Roots, tubers and molasses may be used as feedstocks in developing countries, while wheat, coarse grains and sugar beet is expected to dominate in the EU. In the Far East, notably Malaysia, South Korea and China, palm oil will become an increasingly important feedstock.