30/03/2011 (Bloomberg) - Farmers in the U.S. and China are likely to plant more corn and cotton for harvesting this year, partly at the expensive of soybeans, industry forecaster Oil World reported.

China’s Ministry of Agriculture expects soybean plantings to slide 11 percent this year, while U.S. soybean sowing may be similar to last year’s record, compared with “sizeable” gains for corn and cotton, the Hamburg-based company said.

“There is concern that soybean plantings in the Northern Hemisphere will not be large enough this spring to facilitate the required recovery of soybean stocks in the 2011-12 season,” Oil World said. “Farmers are shifting acreage to more attractively priced corn and cotton.”

Corn prices have climbed 89 percent in Chicago in the past 12 months and cotton futures more than doubled in New York, compared with a 40 percent gain for Chicago soybeans.

Relatively low stocks for oilseeds mean there is “very little cushion” for poor weather or yield losses in the upcoming growing season for oil crops, Oil World said.

Brazil may suffer further soybean crop losses this season if rainfall continues to disrupt the harvest in the next one to two weeks, according to Oil World.

Quality problems are a “major concern” in Brazil as beans are being harvested with moisture content of 30 percent to 40 percent, causing “huge discounts” in prices for farmers as well as rejection of soybeans at crushing plants, Oil World said.

Germany, Poland
The outlook for part of this year’s rapeseed crop is disappointing, with “quite poor” conditions in Germany and Poland that may reduce the average yield, Oil World said. The EU needs “favorable weather” or the bloc’s 2011 harvest may drop below last year’s 20.5 million metric tons, it said.

World rapeseed stockpiles at the end of June will fall to 5.56 million tons from 7.18 million tons a year earlier, Oil World forecast.

Canadian farmers may plant a record amount of rapeseed, or canola, this spring in response to “attractive prices,” Oil World said. Wetter-than-usual fields may delay planting of spring crops including canola, the forecaster said.

World palm-oil production is forecast to rise to 48.5 million tons in 2011 from 45.6 million tons. Output in Indonesia may climb to 23.8 million tons from 22 million tons and Malaysia’s harvest is forecast to advance to 17.7 million tons from 17 million tons, Oil World said.

Sunflower seed production in Argentina in 2010-11 will climb to 3.4 million tons from 2.8 million tons the previous year, while global output of the oilseed is seen at 32.7 million tons compared with 32.8 million tons a year earlier, the forecaster said.