25/03/2011 (Commodity Online) - NCDEX April soyabean futures ended in green on short covering after yesterday’s sharp falls. Delayed harvesting of Brazil’s crop due to due to continuous rain also favored to the bulls. A private forecast for soyabean planted area to come in at 75.269 million acres was seen as supportive as the latest USDA Outlook Forum estimates called for soyabean planted area at 78 million acres as compared with 77.4 million last year. While the USDA outlook forum supply/demand outlook showed ending stocks for the 2011/12 season at 160 million bushels, if plantings are only 75.3 million acres, ending stocks would slip to just 49 million bushels.

USDA’s Weekly Export sales Report: USDA’s weekly export sales report released on March 17, 2011, which shows that the net weekly export sales for soyabeans was 146,800 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 67,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 214,500 which was well below trade expectations. Meal sales were also lower than expected at 58,300 tonnes. Net oil sales came in at 14,200 metric tonnes.

Mustard Seed

NCDEX April RM Seed futures ended lower on 3rd consecutive day due to higher production estimates of Rabi oilseeds and fresh arrivals of RM seed are provided support to the bears.

Arrivals in Major mandis throughout India were 3.5 lakh bags. Total Rabi area under Oilseeds, is reported higher at 99.24 lakh hectare (lh) against 95.83 lh in previous season as on 11 Mar 2011. India’s RM seed production estimates were at 71 lakh tonnes as on March 13, 2011 for this year. Rajasthan- 35 lakh tonnes, UP- 9 lakh tonnes, Haryana/Punjab- 7.7 lakh tonnes, and M.P./Chhatisgarh -7.5 lakh tones.

Refined Soya oil

NCDEX April Refined soy oil futures traded lower in the morning hours due to weak global market sentiments. However, prices recovered slightly from lower levels on account of short covering and managed to close at Rs 604/10 kg with a gain of Rs 0.30/10 kg as compared to previous trading session’s close of Rs 603.70/10 Kg.

India’s vegetable oil imports may come down by nearly 6% to 87-88 lakh tonnes in 2011 till ending October (Oil marketing year November to October). There is news that, Indonesia plans to cut its palm oil export tax for April to 22.5% from the current 25%. As per Oil World, World production of palm oil may increase 6.6 percent to 48.7 million tons in 2011.

Malaysian Palm Oil Exports:

As per SGS (a cargo surveyor), exports of Malaysian palm oil during the March 1-15 fell 15 percent as compared to the same period in the last month to 520,463 tonnes.

News: As per Indonesia’s palm oil producer Association (Gapki), Indonesia’s CPO estimate is 22.5 million tonnes for 2011.

Outlook:

Oilseeds complex are expected to trade range bound amid subdued trading activity on lack of fresh fundamentals.