10/03/2009 (Alibaba.com) - Planters, traders and consumers in the palm oil industry are gathering in Kuala Lumpur for Bursa Malaysia's annual palm oil conference from March 10 to 12.

Hereare predictions made by three top analysts at last year's conference and how they compare with what prices did. For a list of stories from the conference and other palm oil coverage, see [ID:nSP398630]

DORAB MISTRY
London-based Dorab Mistry, who handles the vegetable oil buying and trading portfolio for India's Godrej International, is closely followed by vegetable oil dealers in Asia when he talks about price direction.

He will present a paper titled "Palm price outlook with special reference to India."

FORECAST AT 2008 CONFERENCE: Malaysian palm oil prices could cross 4,500 ringgit ($1,211) a tonne between September 2008 and February 2009.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008/2009: The benchmark Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures surged 16 percent to a record high of 4,486 ringgit on March 4 just four trading days after Mistry made his prediction, helped by crude and soyoil markets.
But from the all-time high, prices slid 57 percent in a year till end-February's price of 1,895 ringgit, battered by roiling markets, global economic fallout and slowing demand that led to rising stocks in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

THOMAS MIELKE
Mielke is executive director of ISTA Mielke GMBH in Germany, producer of vegetable oils information newsletter Oil World, which has been published since 1985.

His paper for the conference is titled "The Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook of Palm and Lauric Oils as well as Impacts from Outside Markets."

FORECAST AT 2008 CONFERENCE: Prices of palm oil to average about 3,580 ringgit a tonne in 2008.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008: Palm futures swung wildly, trading between 3,000 and 3,598 ringgit in the first half as big importers scrambled to buy amid dwindling global vegetable oil prices.

In the second half, prices traded much lower, between 1837 and 3,624 ringgit, as the credit crisis infiltrated palm oil markets, leading to defaults by top consumers China, India and Pakistan and record stock levels in palm producing countries.

JAMES FRY
Chairman of LMC International, Fry has a doctorate in economics from Oxford University and is in charge of the consultancy's work in various commodities, including vegetable oils.

He presents a paper titled "What lessons can we draw from 2008 when preparing forecasts for 2009?"

FORECAST AT 2008 CONFERENCE: Palm oil futures to fall to 2,900 ringgit by August.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008: Prices of the tropical oil slumped by a third to 2,990 ringgit at the start of August from the March 4 record.