22/05/2026 (Manitoba Cooperator) - How many soybeans will China buy from the United States this year? And, to a lesser extent, how much Canadian canola will be headed to the Asian nation?

Answers to those questions will be key drivers in the soybean and canola markets in the months ahead.

U.S. soybeans

A much-anticipated visit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing earlier this month turned out to be more hype than substance, but the headlines were enough to provide some short-term direction to the futures.

Optimism ahead of Trump’s trip lent support to soybeans, causing futures prices to hit their highest levels in two months on the eve of the meetings, May 13. However, comments from the head of the U.S. Treasury Department Scott Bessent downplaying the likelihood that soybeans would be included in any deals sparked a selloff. China has already fulfilled an earlier agreement to buy 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans before the end of February 2026, and there’s an agreement in place that they will purchase at least 25 million tonnes annually over the next three years.

No big trade deals were signed while the cameras were rolling, but the White House announced after the trip was over that China had agreed to purchase an additional US$17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually — over and above the previous soybean commitments. That would work out to about US$28 billion to US$30 billion a year, a considerable improvement from the US$8 billion in total U.S. agricultural exports to China last year.

The commitments compare to the Phase 1 Agreement signed in 2020 during Trump’s first term. That deal would have seen China buy up to US$40 billion a year in agricultural products. While that goal was never quite met, U.S. ag exports to China did hit US$38 billion in 2022, with soybeans accounting for just under half of that.

To reach the latest target without increasing soybean purchases China will need to increase their imports of wheat, feed grains, meat and non-food goods like cotton and lumber. That would come at the expense of other suppliers, including Canada.

Canada

Canadian canola exports to China are slowly picking back up after the countries resolved their trade dispute earlier this year.

Canada exported 383,000 tonnes of canola to China in March 2026, the first month of reduced import tariffs after being all but shut out of the Chinese market since August 2025 due to an anti-dumping investigation.

While canola exports were hurt by the lack of Chinese business, the country has been the top destination for Canadian wheat and barley this year.

Canadian soybean exports to China through March of this marketing year are up by about 50 per cent from 2025-25, at 1.5 million tonnes. Some of that business may revert to the U.S.

China

China grows about 20 million tonnes of soybeans a year, less than a fifth of their projected annual usage in 2026-27 of about 130 million tonnes. Their homegrown soybeans meet the demand for foods such as tofu or soy sauce, while the imports are primarily destined for processing into livestock feed and vegetable oil. Canadian canola is imported for the same reasons.

China accounts for about 50 per cent of global pork production, hitting 59 million tonnes in 2025-26 according to USDA data. They are the third largest beef producer, at eight million tonnes in 2025-26 and second to the United States in chicken production at an estimated 16.5 million tonnes this marketing year.

In addition to purchasing more livestock feed from the U.S., they may also buy more meat directly. U.S. beef exports to China hit US$1.95 billion in 2022 but were only a quarter of that in 2025. Chinese imports of U.S. poultry products hit $1.1 billion in 2022 but were only a tenth of that in 2025.

South America

Brazil just harvested a 180 million-tonne soybean crop and Argentina grew about 48 million tonnes. The early calls for next year are for larger production from both major exporters. Those South American crops will also be looking for a home, with China the top contender.

https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/markets/chinese-demand-key-drivers-soybeans-canola/