11/03/2026 (Focus Malaysia) - THE LOCAL crude palm oil (CPO) price delivery ended the month at RM3,957/tonne with an average price of RM4,078/tonne, as festive-driven demand optimism began to moderate. 

Prices continued to move within a narrow band, as the market digested key takeaways from the POC 2026 conference, where consensus projections pointed to a RM3,800–4,400/tonne trading range for 2026. 

Looking ahead to March, MBSB Research anticipates the CPO price to edge higher by +3.3% month-on-month (mom) to an average of RM4,212/tonne.

This is supported by seasonally softer output during the pollination months and influenced by Brent crude price led-sentiment following recent US-Iran tensions that could support a potential B50 biodiesel mandate. 

Ending stockpile in Feb-26 remained elevated, above its psychological level of 2.5 mil tonne at circa 2.70 mil tonne, largely due to the steady output volume. 

This translated into a relatively high stock-to-usage ratio of approximately 12.7%, indicating supply growth has outpaced consumption. 

That said, export volumes were restored on the back of active restocking activities ahead of the CNY and Ramadhan festive, rising to 1.13 mil tonne. 

Demand for both CPO and PPO were mixed, with CPO exports surging by more than 100%yoy while PPO recorded a modest increase of +2.9% year-on-year. 

The sharp rise in CPO shipments was largely price-driven, as CPO prices in January were -14.3% lower year-on-year, improving its competitiveness following India’s reduction in effective CPO import duties in October 2025. 

In contrast, PPO demand remained relatively soft, reflecting weaker offtake for refined palm products, particularly within the lauric derivatives and food processing segments. 

Nonetheless, despite the strong year-on-year growth, CPO’s contribution to total exports remained limited, accounting for only 15.2% of overall shipments.

“Looking ahead, we maintain our tactically based POSITIVE call, supported by a narrowing POGO spread,” said MBSB.

Firmer Brent crude could lift gasoil prices, improve biodiesel economics and make Indonesia’s potential B50 mandate more manageable. 

Higher domestic absorption may tighten PO availability and support CPO prices. 

That said, cost pressures could emerge in the second half, particularly for upstream planters, from higher fertiliser costs following the spike in urea prices and elevated diesel-linked logistics costs. 

“Downstream players may also face higher freight and insurance premiums, hence our tactically based Positive rather than a fundamentally based Positive call,” said MBSB. —Mar 11, 2026

https://focusmalaysia.my/elevated-stockpiles-keep-palm-oil-prices-moving-in-narrow-range/