Malaysia’s 2026 CPO output to moderate after record-breaking 2025 — MPOB
13/01/2026 (The Edge Malaysia), Kuala Lumpur - Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) production is expected to dip below the 20 million-tonne mark in 2026 after hitting a record high last year, as output normalises following a tree-resting cycle, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
CPO production could range between 19.5 million and 19.8 million tonnes, MPOB director general Datuk Dr Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir told the Palm Oil Economic Review and Outlook Seminar 2026 on Tuesday. Output reached a historic high of 20.28 million tonnes in 2025.
“The moderation reflects a natural production normalisation, with a tree-resting cycle following strong yields in late 2025 expected to weigh on output, particularly in early 2026," Ahmad Parveez explained. “But of course, we still hope production can exceed 20 million tonnes. At the very least, this is a safe estimate for us to make.”
Constraints on growth
The DG noted production growth is constrained by the lack of planted area expansion, with total oil palm acreage remaining stagnant at about 5.7 million hectares, while ongoing replanting activities and an ageing tree profile are temporarily reducing the total productive area.
These issues are compounded by persistent labour constraints, which continue to hinder harvesting efficiency across the industry.
Environmental factors also remain a concern. “Weather is something we cannot control. Our forecast also takes into account the potential impact of the ongoing monsoon season. Prolonged rainfall and flooding could lead to waterlogging and restricted access to estates, disrupting harvesting activities and delaying the delivery of fresh fruit bunches,” Ahmad Parveez added.
CPO exports set to rebound
Meanwhile, total CPO exports are expected to rise to between 15.8 million and 16.8 million tonnes in 2026, after the "lower-than-expected" 15.26 million tonnes recorded last year, Ahmad Parveez said.
The lower export figures in 2025 were attributed to stiff competition from Indonesia and narrow price gaps between palm oil and other vegetable oils, which dampened Malaysia's price competitiveness.
The outlook for 2026 is bolstered by Indonesia’s domestic policies. Indonesia’s B35-B40 biodiesel mandates are expected to consume more of its domestic supply, limiting its export availability and creating a gap for Malaysian palm oil to fill, Ahmad Parveez said.
“India is expected to remain Malaysia’s largest export market, supported by low inventory levels and favourable pricing, while steady demand from China, the European Union, the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia is also expected to underpin exports,” he added.