The Edge Malaysia (19/12/2025) - KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 19): The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects crude palm oil (CPO) to trade range-bound in January despite seasonally high demand, as abundant supply and spillover from crude oil price weakness caps recovery.

The vegetable oil is expected to hover between RM3,800 and RM4,100 per tonne in January, the MPOC said in a statement. The commodity currently trades at just under RM4,000 per tonne.

Malaysia's palm oil stock is at over six-year high in November at 2.83 million tonnes, but "contrasting stock positions" with key producer Indonesia suggesting there is no concern of oversupply, the MPOC said.

"Palm oil prices were also weighed down by the softer global sentiment, compounded by rising inventories in Malaysia.

"As a result, palm oil’s price competitiveness has further improved relative to soybean oil and other competing vegetable oils, which is expected to translate into a pickup in global palm oil demand in the near term," it said.

For key consumer markets, India could see improved imports in the first quarter of 2026 due to the wedding season.

The first quarter is also "typically" the seasonal low for production, while whole demand is expected to improve ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadhan, the MPOC said.  

The MPOC added that November exports weakened as the EU delayed its Deforestation Regulation implementation by 12 months, implying low pressure for European importers to build "precautionary stocks", it added.

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