Palm oil, soyoil prices to rise US$100–US$150 per tonne in early 2026 — Mielke
26/09/2025 (Reuters), Mumbai - Global palm oil and soyoil prices are expected to rise by US$100 to US$150 (RM422 to RM633) per metric tonne between January and June 2026 due to tightening supplies, leading industry analyst Thomas Mielke said on Friday.
Both oils will also be supported by a likely increase in biodiesel consumption in the US, Brazil and Indonesia, while production growth remains limited, Mielke told the Globoil India conference.
"The global production shortage will become wider and more significant in January to March," he said.
Growth in the production of palm oil, the world's most consumed vegetable oil, has been slowing, with only 1.14 million tonnes of additional output expected in 2026, compared to the current year, he estimated.
Malaysian RBD palm olein prices, currently trading around US$1,080 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, "will rise even more than US$150 per tonne if the Indonesian government measures to seize palm plantations has a negative effect on production", he said.
Indonesia has transferred 1.5 million hectares of palm oil plantations to state-owned Agrinas Palma Nusantara, making it the world's largest by land and capable of producing 5.7 million tonnes of crude palm oil annually.
Argentine soyoil, currently trading around US$1,050 per tonne on an FOB basis, is undervalued and could rise, driven mainly by higher biodiesel demand, he said.
Sunflower oil is trading at a hefty premium over rival soyoil, but this is expected to disappear in the March quarter as supplies from the Black Sea and Argentina improve, he said.
Sunflower oil imports in India, China and other key markets are declining, but this trend is expected to reverse once sunflower oil's premium disappears, he said.
Sunflower oil is currently trading at a US$140-per-tonne premium over rival soyoil for buyers in India, the world's largest importer of vegetable oils.
India's vegetable oil imports in the 2025/26 marketing year, starting Nov 1, are expected to rise by 1.5 million tonnes from a year ago, reaching a record 18 million tonnes, he said.