India’s per capita vegetable oil consumption will likely be 12.68 kg by 2034
Import from Indonesia and Malaysia will decline but the offtake will rise as a result of increases in the crushing of domestically produced oilseeds
20/07/2025 (Business Line) - The per capita consumption of vegetable oil in India is expected to reach 12.68 kg per person by 2034, according to OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-34.
Mentioning that India is the world’s second largest consumer and leading importer of vegetable oil, the Outlook said it is projected to sustain a per capita food consumption growth of 2.5 per cent per annum, reaching 12.68 kg per person by 2034.
This substantial increase will be the result of increases in the crushing of domestically produced oilseeds, supported by numerous government programmes to increase production. However, imports of mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to decline so as to rely less on vegetable oil imports, it said.
The per capita consumption of vegetable oil in India increased from 8.53 a kg per person in 2012-14 to 9.97 kg per person in 2022-24.
Global consumption
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-34 said that the global per capita consumption of vegetable is estimated to be at 15.68 kg per person by 2034 from 15.05 kg per person in 2022-24. It was at 13.64 kg per person in 2012-14.
The two dominant uses of vegetable oil are food and food preparation (52 per cent) and as biomass-based diesel feedstock (18 per cent).
A considerable share of the reported food consumption is used for frying rather than human intake which results in an amount of used cooking oil which can be used as feedstock for biomass-based diesel production. Vegetable oils are also used for cosmetics, varnishes and increasingly in animal feed, especially for aquaculture.
It said that per capita consumption of vegetable oil for food is projected to increase (0.5 per cent per annum) due to strongly increasing food demand in lower middle- and low-income countries. In some emerging markets, the consumption of vegetable oil for food is set to reach levels comparable to those of high-income countries.
By 2034, per capita vegetable oil consumption is projected to reach 27 kg in China and Brazil. In high-income countries the per capita consumption of vegetable oil is levelling off. In the case of the US, the increasing role of alternative vegetable oil like olive oil and corn oil (not included in the Outlook) result in declining per capita consumption, it said.
On the price outlook for 2025-34, it said oilseed and product prices are expected to increase slightly in nominal terms over the projection period. Due to the coupled production of meal and oil and the expected stronger demand for vegetable oil than protein meal, prices of vegetable oil are projected to rise compared to protein meal. This will also favour other oilseeds prices over soyabeans as they contain higher shares of oil, it said.
Soyabean output
The Outlook highlighted that soyabean production is expected to increase in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine and Canada during the period.
It said that Brazil is the largest producer of soyabeans and production is expected to grow at 0.8 per cent per annum over the next decade due to double cropping with maize, slightly more than in the United States, the second largest producer, at 0.5 per cent per annum.
The production of soyabeans is projected to grow strongly elsewhere in Latin America, with Argentina and Paraguay producing 56 million tonnes (mt) and 13 mt, respectively, by 2034.
In China, soyabean production is expected to continue to increase in response to reduced policy support for the cultivation of cereals, but at slower pace than in the previous decade, it said.
The global production of soyabeans is projected to grow by 1 per cent per annum, compared to 2.2 per cent per annum over the last decade. Yield increases will account for about 80 per cent of that production growth. Soyabeans’ short vegetation period allows for double cropping, with maize in Brazil and wheat in Argentina, which accounts for a considerable share of projected harvested area expansion in Latin America, it said.
Palm oil growth may weaken
Mentioning that the global palm oil output has outpaced the production of other vegetable oils over the past decade, the Outlook said growth in palm oil production is expected to weaken due to increasing sustainability concerns and the ageing of oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for almost one-third of the world’s vegetable oil production and for more than 80 per cent of global palm oil production.
At the global level, palm oil supplies are projected to expand at an annual rate of 0.8 per cent. Increasingly stringent environmental policies from the major importers of palm oil and sustainable agriculture norms are expected to slow the expansion of the oil palm area in Indonesia and Malaysia. This implies that production growth needs to come from productivity improvements, including an acceleration of replanting.
Palm oil production in other countries is expected to expand more rapidly from a low base, mainly for domestic and regional markets.