Malaysia palm oil stocks to rise amid strong seasonal production, says Glenauk Economics
13/05/2025 (The Edge Malaysia), Kuala Lumpur - Agricultural commodity advisory firm Glenauk Economics forecasts global palm oil output to remain high in May, supported by a seasonal recovery given the end of the monsoon season, which is expected to minimise rainfall disruptions in the second quarter.
The firm also expects Malaysia’s palm oil export volumes to strengthen, supported by recovering demand from key buyers, particularly India, due to the price discount of palm oil over soybean oil.
Nevertheless, the commodity advisory firm thinks Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are expected to continue rising with the ongoing production upcycle.
As of end-April, stocks rose 6.9% year-on-year to 1.87 million tonnes, driven by high production levels and flat exports. Glenauk Economics noted that April saw unexpectedly strong palm oil output, particularly in Sarawak, where fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yields reached their highest since 2011.
For context, the average monthly palm oil stock from January to June stood at 1.83 million tonnes in both 2023 and 2024.
Nationwide, Malaysia’s April FFB yields were the highest since 2015, while oil extraction rates continued improving.
That said, April exports remained subdued, falling 10.9% to 1.1 million tonnes, while stocks of kernels and kernel oil continued to increase.
As for imports, volumes fell sharply by 52.2% month-on-month to 58,000 tonnes, as Indonesian exporters deferred shipments to May to capitalise on lower export taxes.
It also noted that the domestic “consumption” number fell 24.7% from last month's near record but remains elevated at 339,000 tonnes, as Indonesia continues to restrict palm oil mill effluent oil exports, pushing demand to Malaysia.