16/04/2024 (World Grain), Bangkok, Thailand - A slow economic recovery will keep soybean crush in Thailand in 2023-24 and 2024-25 well below the five-year pre-pandemic average, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The report, released on April 5, said Thailand’s soybean crush is expected to grow 2% in 2023-24 and 3% in 2024-25. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the average five-year annual growth rate was about 5%, but the slow post-pandemic recovery in domestic consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal for swine feed has impacted growth projections.

Soybean crush is projected at 2.43 million tonnes in 2024-25, up from 2.36 million tonnes the previous year. Annual soybean production is marginal at 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes. Imports, mostly from Brazil, meet soybean demand in Thailand and are projected to be 3.3 million tonnes in 2024-25, up slightly from 3.27 million tonnes.

About 70% of soybeans in Thailand are crushed for cooking oil. Four active soybean crushers in Thailand have a combined daily capacity of 12,500 tonnes and are running up to 70% of capacity. Aside from sales of cooking oil, the largest revenue stream for the crushers is the sale of soybean meal for animal feed.

“Crushers are reportedly holding high soybean inventories due to lower-than-expected domestic consumption of cooking oil and soybean meal for animal feed, following an economic slowdown in the second half of 2023,” the FAS said.

Full fat soybeans are usually used in feed rations when the cost of full fat soybeans is less than the combined cost of soybean meal and oil ingredients. The FAS forecasts 2023-24 and 2024-25 full fat soybean demand to increase around 3% each year.

Still, the annual full fat soybean demand of around 600,000 tonnes is well below the average annual demand of 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes prior to the 2021-22 African swine fever outbreak due to a slow recovery in swine production in 2023 and 2024.

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/19865-sluggish-economy-slows-thailands-soy-crush