31.08.2023 (Mintec Global) - The European Union's sunflower seed production remains a point of significant interest. Market players had maintained their production forecast at 10 million metric tonnes provided to Mintec for the EU crop in previous weeks. While this estimate surpasses the previous season's 9 million metric tonnes, there are now notable concerns about the potential need for downward revisions. Mintec has been gathering insights from industry insiders regarding the ongoing sunflower harvest in Bulgaria and Romania. Initial expectations of record-breaking sunflower seed crops in these countries have encountered an unexpected turn. The harvest has revealed yields that are notably lower than those observed in previous years.

The primary culprit behind this divergence from expectations has been the exceptionally hot weather experienced during July and August. These adverse conditions have hindered the crucial pollination process, resulting in sunflowers yielding fewer seeds per head. Moreover, both Bulgarian and Romanian market players have shared concerning news about the oil content of the harvested seeds, which has dipped well below the usual range of 42% to 46%. In some instances, the oil content has plummeted to as low as 38%. This development has sparked concerns among industry experts, who consider such levels if seen across a significant portion of the crop as potentially a disaster.

The implications of this situation are substantial. The anticipated contribution of Bulgaria and Romania to bolstering overall EU production might fall short due to these unexpected challenges. This is particularly significant as these countries were initially poised to counterbalance predictions of flat to lower year-on-year volumes from countries like France and Germany. The potential outcome could exert upward pressure on prices for both sunflower seeds and oil. However, it's vital to consider that the EU and the global market likely possess ample supplies, which could mitigate the extent of price increases according to market players.

As the sunflower seed harvest unfolds, industry observers are keeping a close watch on developments, eager to see how these challenges will ultimately shape the EU's sunflower market and its broader implications for the oilseeds and oils sector. Mintec will update this story as more details emerge.