INDIA VEG OIL IMPORTS SEEN SURGING OVER DECADE

ROTTERDAM, June 19 (Reuters) - India, the world's biggestimporter of vegetable oils, is likely to sharply increaseshipments over the decade as output fails to keep up withburgeoning consumption, an industry official said on Tuesday.Imports are due to jump by 250,000-300,000 tonnes each yearfor the next five to 10 years, said B.V. Mehta, executivedirector of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.That assumed no serious efforts were made to boost domesticoutput, he told the Lipidex edible oils conference in Rotterdam.Demand for edible oils in India was seen climbing by 5-6percent per year, leading to a near doubling of totalconsumption to 17.4-20.7 million tonnes by 2010."Oilseed output of one million tonnes (additional per year)will meet just about 50 percent of the additional edible oilrequirement of the country. The shortfall has necessarily to bemet through additional imports," Mehta said.Indian imports were expected to rise to 5.15 million tonnesin 2000/01 (Nov-Oct), from 4.39 million in 1998/99, when Indiaovertook China as the world's biggest importer.

DEMAND AMONG THE POORPolicy makers were studying ways to boost domestic output ofoilseeds, but the outcome was uncertain, Mehta said.The government was studying one proposal to pay farmers toswitch to oilseeds from grains.To freeze imports at current levels, farmers would have toshift two million hectares to oilseeds, Mehta said.Vegetable oil consumption could grow even faster thanprojected if ways were found to boost the incomes of the poorest30 percent of the population, who only consumeD five kg percapita, compared with a 10 kg average for the whole country and20 kg for the richest 10 percent.Scope also existed for processors to moderise and expandproduction, with 15,000 oil mills running at an average 25percent capacity."Given the large idle processing capacity, it is only amatter of time before duty on oilseeds is reduced to makeimports feasible," he said.Meal produced from crushing would be re-exported since thedomestic market was already saturated, he said.Mehta gave the following forecast for edible oil imports, inthousand tonnes:

1999/2000 2000/2001Refined palm olein 2,210 2,250Crude palm oil 830 1,300Soybean oil 710 1,100Sunseed oil 570 400Rapeseed oil 110 50Others 60 50TOTAL 4,490 5,150