HYDERABAD, (Sept. 18) - THE soya crop in the country is in a criticalphase at present and if there are no rains in a couple of days, the cropoutput is estimated to decline drastically. A prolonged dry spell isaffecting the crop which currently at pod formation stage.

According to the Chief Executive of the ITC International BusinessDivision, Mr S. Sivakumar, if the dry spell continued, the soya outputthis year could decline to 4.7 million tonnes as against the initialestimates of 5.5 mt. The output might go up to 5.1 mt provided there wasrainfall in the next couple days.

Mr Sivakumar told Business line that due to poor monsoons and expecteddecline in crop yield, very little advance business had taken place thisyear. So far, only 2 lakh tonnes of soya was traded while normally thetrading would be in the range of 5 lakh tonnes. Business was dull atpresent as soyabean prices were expected to rise.

In India, while soya bean prices are determined by the local conditions,the product prices are determined by the conditions in the internationalmarket. With 70 per cent of the soya meal produced is meant for exports,the exporters are now keenly watching the situation arising out theterrorist strikes in New York and Washington.

With regard to soya oil, on account of the differential duty structure,the volume of imported soya oil has already exceeded the quantity of theindigenous soya oil in the domestic market. While there 7.5 lakh tonnesindigenous soya oil entered the market, the imported soya oil traded inthe country was stated to be over 10 lakh tonnes.