Bloomberg (15/10/2019) - Despite claiming otherwise, the U.S. hasn’t achieved much in the latest round of talks. 

President Donald Trump’s deals tend to be larger in the telling than the reality. The trade truce he has claimed to have struck with China is yet another instance.

Following talks last week in Washington, the president announced a breakthrough. China, he said, had agreed to step up its agricultural imports from the U.S. — “the greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country.”

Calling that an overstatement would be an understatement. The two sides did seem to step back from their dispute, with the U.S. agreeing to suspend a 5% increase in tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods due to take effect this week, but China’s state-run media said only that they had “agreed to make joint efforts toward eventually reaching an agreement.” On Monday, Chinese officials called for more talks on the preliminary “phase-one deal.”

A cease-fire, if it happens, would be progress, but only compared to the alternative of escalating this enormously damaging conflict. American farmers would certainly benefit if China increased its agricultural imports over the next two years, as U.S. officials say they will, but the broader economic benefits would be limited. Other concessions claimed by U.S. negotiators — promises to open up the Chinese financial sector, improve intellectual-property protections and refrain from manipulating the yuan — mostly deal with issues China was addressing anyway.

As talks continue, U.S. negotiators need to get China’s commitments written down and signed by Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping when they meet next month. Broader talks then ought to follow. The U.S. has yet to win real concessions on any of the structural issues that ostensibly drove Trump to launch his trade war. Some of these — a reduction in wasteful and possibly illegal subsidies, for instance, as well as market-opening measures that would level the playing field for foreign companies — would be to China’s long-term benefit.

As Monday’s news suggests, China’s leaders doubt Trump’s reliability as a negotiator. They also appear to sense weakness, knowing that Trump needs to bolster the stock market and the wider economy ahead of the 2020 election. They may well seek to drag out talks past the elections in hopes of dealing with a different president in 2021.

In the meantime, the U.S. needs to secure its economic interests in other ways. It should repair bruised relations with allies in Europe and Asia, and resume a rules-based approach to bringing China’s trade policies into line with international norms. It should be leading a drive for new high-standard trade agreements, rather than letting other countries set global standards without its input.

A lasting trade peace won’t put an end to disagreements between the U.S. and China. Human rights, military and technological competition, espionage, and geopolitical influence will all remain points of contention. Nonetheless, this festering trade quarrel is causing pointless and avoidable damage, and is only making progress on those other challenges harder.

Read more at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-14/trump-trade-war-update-u-s-china-truce-could-mean-progress