Kuala Lumpur 4 January, 2002 (NSTP) - THE agriculture sector is in for aslower growth of 0.8 per cent in 2002 due to declines in production ofcrude palm oil, rubber and saw logs.Crude palm oil production is expected to decline by 2.1 per cent nextyear, on account of low biological yield cycle of the crop and the largehectarage which has been taken out of production due to replanting.Rubber production is projected to drop 1.7 per cent in 2002 in line withMalaysia’s obligation to reduce output by 4 per cent under a tripartiteagreement with Indonesia and Thailand.At the same time, saw logs production is expected to decline by 2.9 percent in 2002 in tandem with the policy of sustainable forest management.Following that, exports of major commodities in 2002 is expected to remainunfavourable, primarily attributed to lower prices for all majorcommodities, including palm oil and crude oil.Sawn timber production is expected to contract by 13.8 per cent in 2001,causing value added of forestry sector to decline by 11.2 per cent toRM2,746 million.Aquaculture, fishing and crops like tobacco, pepper and herbs are expectedto register higher output. In fact, pepper production is expected toincrease by 14.2 per cent in 2001 from a larger planted area of 13,500 ha.Value added agriculture sector including livestock, forestry and fishingis estimated to increase by 1.2 per cent in 2001 to RM17.91 million fromRM17.69 million last year.Agriculture growth will be driven by a 8.9 per cent growth in productionof crude palm oil, coupled with higher growth of 3.1 per cent in valueadded agriculture.For 2001, production from rubber and saw logs is expected to decline by5.7 per cent and 11.2 per cent respectively, while value added in fishingcontracts by 1.9 per cent.In 2001, export earnings from primary commodities comprising agriculturalproduce and mineral products are estimated to decline by 9.3 per centagainst a growth of 12.1 per cent in 2000.Export earnings from agricultural commodities are seen recording a smallerdecline of 6.8 per cent in 2001 due to lower decline in export volume ofsaw logs, rubber and sawn timber.Exports from mining are estimated to decrease by 11.2 per cent from 60.9per cent last year due to lower price of crude oil and LNG.Earnings from palm oil is expected to turn around by 6.4 per cent, after asharp drop of 31.3 per cent in 2000, in anticipation of higher price ofpalm oil for the rest of the year. As such, export volume is expected togrow by 19.6 per cent this year.Receipts from the export of saw logs are estimated to below at RM1.65billion in 2001 compared to RM2.49 billion last year, as a result ofcontraction in both export volume of 21.3 per cent and export unit valueof 15.7 per cent.Meanwhile, higher domestic demand for rubber has resulted in lower volumeavailable for export. A decline in rubber export volume of 11.1 per centin 2001 and unit value of 7.5 per cent will result in export earnings todecline by 17.7 per cent.Export receipts from cocoa is estimated to rise by 60.8 per cent to RM53million. Export unit value of pepper is expected to decline by 54.3 percent to RM7,143 per tonne from RM15,630 per tonne in 2000. Some RM200million in export earnings is anticipated.Export volume of crude petroleum is estimated to stagnate at 16,750 tonnesthis year. Coupled with lower prices, export earnings from crude petroleumare expected to decline by 14.5 per cent to RM12.24 billion from RM14.24billion last year.Earnings from exports are expected to decline by 7.6 per cent to RM10.44billion in 2001 from RM11.30 billion in 2000.