The countries of the EU-15 are likely to raise their imports of oils andfats by 0.4-0.5 Mn T from a year ago in Oct/Sept 2001/02. This will bringthe total close to a record 5.7 Mn T, compared to 5.2 Mn T one and 4.9 MnT two years earlier (this refers only to imports from third countries andignores trade within the EU). The EU-15 is thereby emerging as the regionwith the steepest increase in import requirements and the largest importdemand in absolute terms, considering that India, the second-biggestimporter, will manage to reduce its imports significantly this season. Thereasons for rapidly rising imports and a likely stagnation of EU oilexports are the highly insufficient production growth on the one hand anda total disappearance that is forecast to grow by 0.3-0.4 Mn T this seasonon the other, probably closer towards the upper end of the range. Thetables on SU 21-61 illustrate the development of crushings of the threemajor oilseeds as well as of oil and meal production until December.Combined production of soya, sun and rape oils declined by 80 Thd T from ayear before in Oct/Dec 2001, but this was more than offset by a boost inpalm oil imports of approximately 160 Thd T in the same period. A recoveryof domestic production is expected in coming months in view of stillrelatively large rapeseed supplies. Given that current expectations of ahigher EU rapeseed production in 2002 materialize this will allow afurther increase in rape oil output, especially from July onward.On the demand side, special factors such as the partial ban on animal fatsin feed manufacturing have contributed to the substantial boost in demandfor palm oil in recent months and will keep import demand at a high levelalso in 2002. The demand for rape oil in biodiesel production has sufferedlately due to its deteriorating competitiveness against mineral oils. Weexpect this to contribute to a significant slowdown of the growth in totalrape oil disappearance this season. Still, biodiesel production widenedthe demand base for vegetable oils decisively in the last two years andthus contributes also to this season’s substantial increase in importrequirements.

8 March, 2002 (OIL WOLRD FLASH)