06/20/2002 (BusinessWorld) - The Philippines, the world's biggest coconutoil supplier, foresees a 36% drop in coconut oil exports this year due toan expected fall in local copra production.The United Coconut Association of the Philippines, Inc.'s (UCAP) revisedcoconut industry forecast shows that coconut oil exports is expected toreach only 900,000 metric tons in 2002. This is 36.1% lower than lastyear's export volume of 1.407 million metric tons.UCAP is the umbrella organization of local coconut oil millers, refinersand traders."Production deficit anticipated for 2002 will correspondingly reduce coprasupply for coconut oil milling and consequently, coconut oil volume forthe export market,"UCAP said.It also said preliminary data show coconut production for 2002 isanticipated to drop significantly to 2.161 million metric tons (in copraterms), down 23.6% from last year's all-time high of 2.828 million metrictons.The decline is due to two successive years of heavy fruiting at above-normal levels, which has stressed coconut trees and resulted in a declinein copra deliveries.Despite the uptick in coconut oil prices in the world market, the declinein export volume will continue to dampen export revenues.UCAP said revenues from coconut oil exports will continue to decline to$310.05 million, down 24.7% from last year's revenues pegged at $411.52million.The group also said it expects coconut oil prices to average $345 per tonof coconut oil, or 17.8% higher than last year's $292 per ton. Wirereports, however, show that coconut oil prices have gone up to $430 perton in the world market.UCAP, however, stressed that improved price levels during the year willnot offset the decline in revenues.For the first semester ending in June, UCAP expects coconut oil exports toreach only 465,000 metric tons, down 33.5% from 698,851 metric tons in thesame period last year.In the second semester, coconut oil exports are expected to reach only435,600 metric tons, posting a sharp 38.6% decline from 708,769 metrictons a year ago."The trend was based on the rainfall pattern in 2001 which showedbelow-normal levels in the second semester in many areas particularlyduring the latter part of the year. This export trend is replicated insubsequent projections for other products namely, copra, copra meal anddesiccated coconut,"UCAP said in its revised forecast report.BusinessWorld earlier reported that preliminary data from UCAP show thatfor May, total coconut oil exports totaled 81,950 metric tons, declining44.79% from 148,442 metric tons shipped abroad in the same month lastyear.Industry sources said the continued slowdown in copra production causedthe sharp drop in coconut oil exports, which may continue for the rest ofthe quarter.The UCAP revised report also said that with the expected decline in localcoconut production this year, other coconut exports such as copra, coprameal, desiccated coconut and oleochemicals are also expected to decline involume."With projected output in 2002 declining, export is likewise forecast todrop by 31.6% to 1.665 million metric tons from last year. A shortfall inrevenue is likewise expected for the year with total export valueamounting only to $404.72 million, down by 21% from last year,"it said.UCAP said it expects the volume of copra exports to decline by 55%, coprameal exports by 31%, and desiccated coconut by 6.5%.

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