MANILA, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The tight copra supply in the Philippines,which led to lower coconut oil exports in October, is expected to worsenin coming months, traders said on Monday.Preliminary data from the United Coconut Association of the PhilippinesInc released last week said Philippine coconut oil exports fell in Octoberto 87,200 tonnes, compared with 105,444 tonnes shipped in October lastyear.Copra is the dried coconut meat from which coconut oil is extracted."It was due to lower production of copra which led to slowing down ofcrushing by other mills," said one trader."The copra supply is expected to get tighter in coming months due tothe low production cycle," he added.The Philippines is the world's largest exporter of coconut oil. Thecountry shipped 99,446 tonnes of coconut oil in September this year.Traders estimated the country's copra production in 2002 at 2.2 milliontonnes, down from 2.85 million tonnes produced in 2001."However, if El Nino won't hit us, I think the supply in 2003 shouldrecover," said one trader."It was supposed to be this time already, but so far, there is nosign," he said.El Nino, which has previously caused drought in the region, wasexpected to hit the Philippines in the fourth quarter.El Nino, "little boy" in Spanish, the four yearly phenomenon stems fromunusually high sea temperatures in the Pacific, and goes on to distortweather patterns worldwide.