MARKET DEVELOPMENT
CORRECTED-PREVIEW-Malaysia Palm Oil Stocks Likely to Grow as Exports Decline
CORRECTED-PREVIEW-Malaysia Palm Oil Stocks Likely to Grow as Exports Decline
(Corrects figure for domestic consumption to 205,491 tonnes not 442,905 tonnes in paragraph 14 and footnote to table, and corrects August stockpile figure to 1,464,491 not 1,701,905 in footnote to table.)
* End-September stocks expected to be 1.51 mln T -Reuters survey
* Output forecast at 1.77 mln T, up 4 pct m/m
* Exports seen at 1.53 mln T, down 15.5 pct m/m
* Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due Oct. 10, after 0430 GMT
07/10/2016 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles likely grew in September from a near six-year low the previous month, expanding on rising production and a drop in demand for exports.
Increasing stocks in the world's No.2 producer of the tropical oil could drag on benchmark prices that have already fallen 7 percent from five-month highs hit in late-September.
Palm, used in everything from chocolate to cosmetics and biofuels, was at 2,541 ringgit ($615) per tonne during the midday break on Thursday.
Inventories are expected to have risen 3.1 percent in September to 1.51 million tonnes, according to a Reuters poll of eight planters, traders and analysts. That would mark the first gain in stockpiles since June. <MYPOMS-TPO>
The rise in stocks comes as palm oil production is forecast to climb 4 percent from August to 1.77 million tonnes. That would be its highest level since last October, but its weakest September performance since 2010. <MYPOMP-CPOTT>
"We're looking at Malaysian production to peak in October-November, as the drought seems to have delayed peak production months from August-September to later in the year," said Voon Yee Ping, plantations analyst from Kenanga Research, referring to dry conditions from the El Nino weather pattern.
The crop damaging El Nino brings scorching heat across Southeast Asia, impacting palm yields in the world's top two producers Malaysia and Indonesia.
September exports are seen falling to 1.53 million tonnes, down 15.5 percent from a record 1.81 million tonnes the month before. <MYPOME-PO>
Demand in September slowed from August's record-high, said a trader from Kuala Lumpur, while October exports are expected to weaken further.
"Diwali buying is all done, so exports in ... October should be poor," he said. The Hindu festival of Diwali, widely celebrated in top palm consumer India, falls in late October.
The trader added that benchmark prices would not decline sharply as stockpiles should remain around 1.50 million tonnes at year-end.
Leading analysts forecast contrasting movements in palm prices for the final quarter of the year.
Thomas Mielke, editor of newsletter Oil World, sees them reaching 3,000 ringgit, while Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International, predicts a fall to 2,200 ringgit.
The median figures from the Reuters survey imply Malaysian consumption of 205,491 tonnes in September. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official data on Oct. 10.
Breakdown of September estimates (in tonnes):
Range Median Production 1,702,000 - 1,840,000 1,770,000 Exports 1,450,000 - 1,613,000 1,531,500 Imports 10,000 - 20,000 12,500 Closing Stocks 1,427,000 - 1,561,491 1,510,000
* Official stocks of 1,464,491 tonnes for August, plus the above estimated output and imports give a total September supply of 3,246,991 tonnes. Based on the median of the exports and closing stock estimates, Malaysia's domestic consumption in September would be 205,491 tonnes.
($1 = 4.1310 ringgit)
* End-September stocks expected to be 1.51 mln T -Reuters survey
* Output forecast at 1.77 mln T, up 4 pct m/m
* Exports seen at 1.53 mln T, down 15.5 pct m/m
* Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due Oct. 10, after 0430 GMT
07/10/2016 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles likely grew in September from a near six-year low the previous month, expanding on rising production and a drop in demand for exports.
Increasing stocks in the world's No.2 producer of the tropical oil could drag on benchmark prices that have already fallen 7 percent from five-month highs hit in late-September.
Palm, used in everything from chocolate to cosmetics and biofuels, was at 2,541 ringgit ($615) per tonne during the midday break on Thursday.
Inventories are expected to have risen 3.1 percent in September to 1.51 million tonnes, according to a Reuters poll of eight planters, traders and analysts. That would mark the first gain in stockpiles since June. <MYPOMS-TPO>
The rise in stocks comes as palm oil production is forecast to climb 4 percent from August to 1.77 million tonnes. That would be its highest level since last October, but its weakest September performance since 2010. <MYPOMP-CPOTT>
"We're looking at Malaysian production to peak in October-November, as the drought seems to have delayed peak production months from August-September to later in the year," said Voon Yee Ping, plantations analyst from Kenanga Research, referring to dry conditions from the El Nino weather pattern.
The crop damaging El Nino brings scorching heat across Southeast Asia, impacting palm yields in the world's top two producers Malaysia and Indonesia.
September exports are seen falling to 1.53 million tonnes, down 15.5 percent from a record 1.81 million tonnes the month before. <MYPOME-PO>
Demand in September slowed from August's record-high, said a trader from Kuala Lumpur, while October exports are expected to weaken further.
"Diwali buying is all done, so exports in ... October should be poor," he said. The Hindu festival of Diwali, widely celebrated in top palm consumer India, falls in late October.
The trader added that benchmark prices would not decline sharply as stockpiles should remain around 1.50 million tonnes at year-end.
Leading analysts forecast contrasting movements in palm prices for the final quarter of the year.
Thomas Mielke, editor of newsletter Oil World, sees them reaching 3,000 ringgit, while Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International, predicts a fall to 2,200 ringgit.
The median figures from the Reuters survey imply Malaysian consumption of 205,491 tonnes in September. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official data on Oct. 10.
Breakdown of September estimates (in tonnes):
Range Median Production 1,702,000 - 1,840,000 1,770,000 Exports 1,450,000 - 1,613,000 1,531,500 Imports 10,000 - 20,000 12,500 Closing Stocks 1,427,000 - 1,561,491 1,510,000
* Official stocks of 1,464,491 tonnes for August, plus the above estimated output and imports give a total September supply of 3,246,991 tonnes. Based on the median of the exports and closing stock estimates, Malaysia's domestic consumption in September would be 205,491 tonnes.
($1 = 4.1310 ringgit)