MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Crude Palm Oil Weekly Report January 2, 2016
Crude Palm Oil Weekly Report January 2, 2016
04/01/2015 (Borneo Post) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Thursday to 2,480, on concerns of slowing demand after data showed exports declined.
Future Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) benchmark March 2016 contract settled at 2,480 on Thursday, down 6 points or 0.24 per cent from 2,486 last Wednesday.
Trading volume decreased to 87,121 contracts from 98,486 contracts from last Monday to Wednesday.
Open interest based decreased to 553,002 contracts from 563,275 contracts from last Monday to Wednesday.
Intertek Testing Services (ITS) reported that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products during December 1 to 25 decreased 15.8 per cent to 1.010 million tonnes compared with 1.2 million tonnes during November 1 to 25.
It had also reported that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products during December decreased 5.4 per cent to 1.272 million tonnes compared with 1.345 million tonnes during November.
Societe Generale de Surveillance’s (SGS) report showed that Malaysia’s palm oil exports during December 1 to 25 decreased 16.5 per cent to 1.015 million tonnes compared with 1.216 million tonnes during November 1 to 25.
Its report also showed that Malaysia’s palm oil exports during December decreased 5.9 per cent to 1.272 million tonnes compared with 1.351 million tonnes during November.
Overall, demand strengthened from the US, Pakistan and India, while demand weakened from the EU, and China.
Spot ringgit strengthened on Thursday to 4.2900, as crude oil prices continued to remain below the US$40 per barrel.
On Monday, the price fell by more than one per cent, ending four successive days of gains and retracing lower after touching the highest in 18 months, as weaker export demand and concerns over the year-end monsoon season dampened market sentiment.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the price rose touching a fresh 18-month high and recovering the previous day losses and supported by concerns that production will be affected by the rainy monsoon season.
On Thursday, the price retraced lower by more than one per cent after earlier touching a 18-month high, on concerns of slowing demand after data showed exports declined.
Technical analysis
According to the weekly FCPO chart, the price opened below the top Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,500, while the SO remained in overbought territory.
By the end of the week, the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,500, closing below.
According to the daily FCPO chart, on Monday, the price opened below the top Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,500, while the SO remained in overbought territory.
A downside gap was formed 2,480 to 2,490, which if able to be covered, could indicate potential to test psychological barrier at 2,500.
By the later session, the previous gap was able to be covered, while the price tested top Bollinger band, closing below, while the SO exited overbought territory.
On Tuesday, the price opened price opened below the top Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,500, while the SO remained in overbought territory. A downside gap was formed from 2,440 to 2,450, which if able to be covered, may indicate potential to test psychological barrier 2,500.
By the later session, the previous gap was covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,500, and top Bollinger band, closing below.
On Wednesday, the price opened below the top Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,500.
An upside gap was formed from 2,485 to 2,495, which if able to be covered, could indicate potential to test previous day low at 2,430. By the later session, the previous gap was covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,500, closing below.
A doji candlestick was formed, which might indicate that buying momentum might be diminishing.
On Thursday, the price opened below the top Bollinger band and above psychological barrier at 2,500. An upside gap was formed from 2,495 to 2,505, which if able to be covered, might indicate potential to test previous day low at 2,475.
By the later session, the previous gap was covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,500, closing below, while the SO remained in overbought territory.
A bearish hanging man candlestick was formed, potential indicating a reversal pattern after testing psychological barrier 2,500.
In the coming week, the price has potential to range between 2,370 and 2,500.
Resistance lines will be placed at 2,510 and 2,550, while support lines will be positioned at 2,410 and 2,350, these levels will be observed in the coming week.
No major fundamental news this coming week.
Oriental Pacific Futures (OPF) is a Trading Participant and Clearing Participant of Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. You may reach us at www.opf.com.my. Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. The writers, publishers and OPF will not be held liable for any damage or trading losses that result from the use of this article.
Future Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) benchmark March 2016 contract settled at 2,480 on Thursday, down 6 points or 0.24 per cent from 2,486 last Wednesday.
Trading volume decreased to 87,121 contracts from 98,486 contracts from last Monday to Wednesday.
Open interest based decreased to 553,002 contracts from 563,275 contracts from last Monday to Wednesday.
Intertek Testing Services (ITS) reported that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products during December 1 to 25 decreased 15.8 per cent to 1.010 million tonnes compared with 1.2 million tonnes during November 1 to 25.
It had also reported that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products during December decreased 5.4 per cent to 1.272 million tonnes compared with 1.345 million tonnes during November.
Societe Generale de Surveillance’s (SGS) report showed that Malaysia’s palm oil exports during December 1 to 25 decreased 16.5 per cent to 1.015 million tonnes compared with 1.216 million tonnes during November 1 to 25.
Its report also showed that Malaysia’s palm oil exports during December decreased 5.9 per cent to 1.272 million tonnes compared with 1.351 million tonnes during November.
Overall, demand strengthened from the US, Pakistan and India, while demand weakened from the EU, and China.
Spot ringgit strengthened on Thursday to 4.2900, as crude oil prices continued to remain below the US$40 per barrel.
On Monday, the price fell by more than one per cent, ending four successive days of gains and retracing lower after touching the highest in 18 months, as weaker export demand and concerns over the year-end monsoon season dampened market sentiment.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the price rose touching a fresh 18-month high and recovering the previous day losses and supported by concerns that production will be affected by the rainy monsoon season.
On Thursday, the price retraced lower by more than one per cent after earlier touching a 18-month high, on concerns of slowing demand after data showed exports declined.
Technical analysis
According to the weekly FCPO chart, the price opened below the top Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,500, while the SO remained in overbought territory.
By the end of the week, the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,500, closing below.
According to the daily FCPO chart, on Monday, the price opened below the top Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,500, while the SO remained in overbought territory.
A downside gap was formed 2,480 to 2,490, which if able to be covered, could indicate potential to test psychological barrier at 2,500.
By the later session, the previous gap was able to be covered, while the price tested top Bollinger band, closing below, while the SO exited overbought territory.
On Tuesday, the price opened price opened below the top Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,500, while the SO remained in overbought territory. A downside gap was formed from 2,440 to 2,450, which if able to be covered, may indicate potential to test psychological barrier 2,500.
By the later session, the previous gap was covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,500, and top Bollinger band, closing below.
On Wednesday, the price opened below the top Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,500.
An upside gap was formed from 2,485 to 2,495, which if able to be covered, could indicate potential to test previous day low at 2,430. By the later session, the previous gap was covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,500, closing below.
A doji candlestick was formed, which might indicate that buying momentum might be diminishing.
On Thursday, the price opened below the top Bollinger band and above psychological barrier at 2,500. An upside gap was formed from 2,495 to 2,505, which if able to be covered, might indicate potential to test previous day low at 2,475.
By the later session, the previous gap was covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,500, closing below, while the SO remained in overbought territory.
A bearish hanging man candlestick was formed, potential indicating a reversal pattern after testing psychological barrier 2,500.
In the coming week, the price has potential to range between 2,370 and 2,500.
Resistance lines will be placed at 2,510 and 2,550, while support lines will be positioned at 2,410 and 2,350, these levels will be observed in the coming week.
No major fundamental news this coming week.
Oriental Pacific Futures (OPF) is a Trading Participant and Clearing Participant of Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. You may reach us at www.opf.com.my. Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. The writers, publishers and OPF will not be held liable for any damage or trading losses that result from the use of this article.