MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Crude Palm Oil Weekly Report – November 21, 2015
Crude Palm Oil Weekly Report – November 21, 2015
23/11/2015 (Borneo Post) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Friday to 2,289, due to the strengthening ringgit. The price was little supported by cargo surveyor data showing a rise in export demand.
Future Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) benchmark February 2015 contract settled at 2,289 on Friday, down 96 points or 4.2 per cent from 2,386 last Friday.
Trading volume increased to 150,607 contracts from 112,583 contracts from last Monday to Thursday, not including Tuesday.
Open interest based increased to 597,736 contracts from 589,461 contracts from last Monday to Thursday, no including Tuesday.
Cargo surveyor, Intertek Testing Services (ITS) reported that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products during November 1 to 15 increased 3.9 per cent to 724,992 tonnes compared with 698,104 tonnes during October 1 to 15.
Intertek Testing Services (ITS) reported that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products during November 1 to 20 increased 4.3 per cent to 970,057 tonnes compared with 929,837 tonnes during October 1 to 20.
Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), reported that Malaysia’s palm oil exports during November 1 to 15 increased 1.8 per cent to 703,768 tonnes compared with 691,064 tonnes during October 1 to 15.
Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) report showed that Malaysia’s palm oil exports during November 1 to 20 increased 5.6 per cent to 993,943 tonnes compared with 941,134 tonnes during October 1 to 20.
Overall, demand strengthened from the EU, while demand weakened from China, the US, and India.
Spot ringgit strengthened on Friday to 4.2830, as the US dollar retreated on expectations the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates only gradually in 2016 after a hike in December.
Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm grower after Indonesia, will keep its crude palm oil export tax at zero for an eighth consecutive month in December, a government circular showed on Monday.
Indonesia’s exports of crude palm oil (CPO) are expected to decline by between 2 million tonnes and 2.5 million tonnes in 2016 from an estimated 24 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes in 2015, the head of the country’s palm agency said on Thursday.
Exports are expected to decline as a result of Indonesia’s policy to increase the bio content in biodiesel, which is expected to increase domestic palm oil consumption, and because production is expected to be stagnant or decline slightly, national CPO fund agency chief Bayu Krisnamurthi told reporters.
On Monday, the price fell, for a second successive day, by more than 1.5 per cent, as a bearish outlook on key export data due later in the day outweighed a weaker ringgit and higher crude oil prices.
On Tuesday, the price decline, for a third consecutive day, as end-stocks remained high and bullish price factors were limited.
On Wednesday, the price rose, the biggest single day climb in more than a week, and ending three successive days of decline, while earlier touching the lowest in three weeks, as weak demand generally kept prices under pressure.
On Thursday and Friday, the price declined, on weak demand and a strengthening ringgit.
Technical analysis
According to the weekly FCPO chart, the price opened above the middle Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,300. By the end of the week, the price tested the psychological barrier 2,300, closing below.
According to the daily FCPO chart, on Monday, the price opened above the middle Bollinger band, and psychological barrier 2,300.
An upside gap formed from 2,285 to 2,335, which if covered could indicate potential to test psychological barrier 2,200, however if unable to, the price may test the psychological barrier at 2,400.
By the later session, the previous gap was able to be covered, while the price tested the middle Bollinger band, closing below, and testing the psychological barrier at 2,300, closing above. Daily volume was double the daily average volume amount.
On Tuesday, the price opened below the middle Bollinger band and above the psychological barrier 2,300. An upside gap was formed from 2,300 to 2,320, which might be covered, or indicate potential to test resistance level 2,350.
By the later session, the previous gap was able to be covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,300, closing below.
On Wednesday, the price opened below the middle Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,300.
A downside gap was formed from 2,285 to 2,295, which if covered could indicate potential to test the psychological barrier at 2,300. By the later session, the previous gap was covered, while the price tested the bottom Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,300, closing above.
On Thursday, the price opened below the middle Bollinger band and above the psychological barrier at 2,300. A downside gap was formed from 2,300 to 2,315, which might be covered, or indicate potential to test the support level at 2,250. By the later session, the previous gap was unable to be covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier 2,300, closing below.
On Friday, the price opened below the middle Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,300. A downside gap was formed from 2,290 to 2,300, which might be covered, or indicate potential to test support level 2,250.
By the later session, the previous gap was unable to be covered, while the price closed below middle Bollinger band and psychological barrier 2,300.
This coming week, the price has potential to range between 2,240 and 2,350. Resistance lines will be placed at 2,350 and 2,410, while support lines will be positioned at 2,240 and 2,190, these levels will be observed this coming week.
Major fundamental news this coming week
ITS and SGS report released on the November 25 (Wednesday).
Future Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) benchmark February 2015 contract settled at 2,289 on Friday, down 96 points or 4.2 per cent from 2,386 last Friday.
Trading volume increased to 150,607 contracts from 112,583 contracts from last Monday to Thursday, not including Tuesday.
Open interest based increased to 597,736 contracts from 589,461 contracts from last Monday to Thursday, no including Tuesday.
Cargo surveyor, Intertek Testing Services (ITS) reported that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products during November 1 to 15 increased 3.9 per cent to 724,992 tonnes compared with 698,104 tonnes during October 1 to 15.
Intertek Testing Services (ITS) reported that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products during November 1 to 20 increased 4.3 per cent to 970,057 tonnes compared with 929,837 tonnes during October 1 to 20.
Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), reported that Malaysia’s palm oil exports during November 1 to 15 increased 1.8 per cent to 703,768 tonnes compared with 691,064 tonnes during October 1 to 15.
Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) report showed that Malaysia’s palm oil exports during November 1 to 20 increased 5.6 per cent to 993,943 tonnes compared with 941,134 tonnes during October 1 to 20.
Overall, demand strengthened from the EU, while demand weakened from China, the US, and India.
Spot ringgit strengthened on Friday to 4.2830, as the US dollar retreated on expectations the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates only gradually in 2016 after a hike in December.
Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm grower after Indonesia, will keep its crude palm oil export tax at zero for an eighth consecutive month in December, a government circular showed on Monday.
Indonesia’s exports of crude palm oil (CPO) are expected to decline by between 2 million tonnes and 2.5 million tonnes in 2016 from an estimated 24 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes in 2015, the head of the country’s palm agency said on Thursday.
Exports are expected to decline as a result of Indonesia’s policy to increase the bio content in biodiesel, which is expected to increase domestic palm oil consumption, and because production is expected to be stagnant or decline slightly, national CPO fund agency chief Bayu Krisnamurthi told reporters.
On Monday, the price fell, for a second successive day, by more than 1.5 per cent, as a bearish outlook on key export data due later in the day outweighed a weaker ringgit and higher crude oil prices.
On Tuesday, the price decline, for a third consecutive day, as end-stocks remained high and bullish price factors were limited.
On Wednesday, the price rose, the biggest single day climb in more than a week, and ending three successive days of decline, while earlier touching the lowest in three weeks, as weak demand generally kept prices under pressure.
On Thursday and Friday, the price declined, on weak demand and a strengthening ringgit.
Technical analysis
According to the weekly FCPO chart, the price opened above the middle Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,300. By the end of the week, the price tested the psychological barrier 2,300, closing below.
According to the daily FCPO chart, on Monday, the price opened above the middle Bollinger band, and psychological barrier 2,300.
An upside gap formed from 2,285 to 2,335, which if covered could indicate potential to test psychological barrier 2,200, however if unable to, the price may test the psychological barrier at 2,400.
By the later session, the previous gap was able to be covered, while the price tested the middle Bollinger band, closing below, and testing the psychological barrier at 2,300, closing above. Daily volume was double the daily average volume amount.
On Tuesday, the price opened below the middle Bollinger band and above the psychological barrier 2,300. An upside gap was formed from 2,300 to 2,320, which might be covered, or indicate potential to test resistance level 2,350.
By the later session, the previous gap was able to be covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier at 2,300, closing below.
On Wednesday, the price opened below the middle Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,300.
A downside gap was formed from 2,285 to 2,295, which if covered could indicate potential to test the psychological barrier at 2,300. By the later session, the previous gap was covered, while the price tested the bottom Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,300, closing above.
On Thursday, the price opened below the middle Bollinger band and above the psychological barrier at 2,300. A downside gap was formed from 2,300 to 2,315, which might be covered, or indicate potential to test the support level at 2,250. By the later session, the previous gap was unable to be covered, while the price tested the psychological barrier 2,300, closing below.
On Friday, the price opened below the middle Bollinger band and psychological barrier at 2,300. A downside gap was formed from 2,290 to 2,300, which might be covered, or indicate potential to test support level 2,250.
By the later session, the previous gap was unable to be covered, while the price closed below middle Bollinger band and psychological barrier 2,300.
This coming week, the price has potential to range between 2,240 and 2,350. Resistance lines will be placed at 2,350 and 2,410, while support lines will be positioned at 2,240 and 2,190, these levels will be observed this coming week.
Major fundamental news this coming week
ITS and SGS report released on the November 25 (Wednesday).