23/09/2015 (The Star) - A strong El Nino, which is expected to hit Malaysia end of this year, and last until April next year, is bound to cause a major disruption to palm oil production, said experts.

Plantation research and consulting company Ganling Sdn Bhd director Ling Ah Hong said the last El Nino in 2009 and 2010 had caused "substantial disruption" to crop production worldwide.

"All indications point to an extremely strong El Nino this year, similar to the 1982, 1983 and 1997,1998 events," he said, speaking during a talk organised by the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) yesterday.

He said the El Nino phenomenon could result in a yield decline of between 2% and 23%.

"It is likely to cause a major disruption to supply in Malaysia and Indonesia.

"Production in 2015 will not be impacted, the impact will only be seen in 2016," he said.

On prices, he said history had shown that El Nino was usually followed by a 15% to 125% spike due to the major disruption in supply.

In 2009 and 2010, following the El Nino, monthly prices increased by 80% and by 110% in 1997 and 1998.