MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm up on Weak Ringgit, Despite Negative Outlook From Leading Analyst
VEGOILS-Palm up on Weak Ringgit, Despite Negative Outlook From Leading Analyst
* Palm prices likely between 2,100-2,300 ringgit until May - Mistry
* Palm may end technical rebound at 2,165 - technicals
14/04/2015 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Monday as weakness in the ringgit and gains in competing vegetable oils encouraged buying.
"The market is up on the back of the weak ringgit, better export prospects, strong soy oil and positive Dalian market," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.
The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.7 percent to settle at 2,143 ringgit ($579) a tonne by the midday break.
Total traded volume stood at 19,297 lots of 25 tonnes, well above the usual 12,500 lots.
The ringgit was trading at 3.6730 against the dollar by 0132 GMT, weaker than 3.6670 the day before.
A weak ringgit can make palm prices effectively cheaper for overseas buyers.
A leading vegetable oil analyst's negative outlook for palm prices did not dampen trading on Monday.
Palm prices will likely trade between 2,100 ringgit ($573) and 2,300 ringgit until May, analyst Dorab Mistry said on Monday, cutting an earlier estimate by as much as 16 percent due to poor demand and slow take-up for biofuels.
"Mistry's views are long-term, they'll materialise in the second half of the year. The bullish factors today are just a short-term correction," said the Kuala Lumpur-based trader.
"Mistry's comments will have an impact but the immediate response is going against his outlook," the trader added.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil May contract rose 0.48 percent in early Asian trade, while the most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 1.45 percent.
Figures from last week showed strength in Malaysian palm exports in the first 10 days of April, which rose 29.4 percent from the same period the previous month, according to cargo survey company Societe Generale de Surveillance.
Palm oil may end its current rebound around a resistance at 2,165 ringgit per tonne, and then fall towards a support at 2,137 ringgit, as indicated by a Fibonacci retracement analysis, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
In other markets, oil prices inched up on Monday following a strong session on Friday, as financial traders increased their bets on higher prices amid a slowdown in U.S. drilling, but analysts warned fundamentals remained weak.
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.7040 ringgit)
($1 = 6.2140 Chinese yuan)
($1 = 62.3700 Indian rupees)
* Palm may end technical rebound at 2,165 - technicals
14/04/2015 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Monday as weakness in the ringgit and gains in competing vegetable oils encouraged buying.
"The market is up on the back of the weak ringgit, better export prospects, strong soy oil and positive Dalian market," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.
The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.7 percent to settle at 2,143 ringgit ($579) a tonne by the midday break.
Total traded volume stood at 19,297 lots of 25 tonnes, well above the usual 12,500 lots.
The ringgit was trading at 3.6730 against the dollar by 0132 GMT, weaker than 3.6670 the day before.
A weak ringgit can make palm prices effectively cheaper for overseas buyers.
A leading vegetable oil analyst's negative outlook for palm prices did not dampen trading on Monday.
Palm prices will likely trade between 2,100 ringgit ($573) and 2,300 ringgit until May, analyst Dorab Mistry said on Monday, cutting an earlier estimate by as much as 16 percent due to poor demand and slow take-up for biofuels.
"Mistry's views are long-term, they'll materialise in the second half of the year. The bullish factors today are just a short-term correction," said the Kuala Lumpur-based trader.
"Mistry's comments will have an impact but the immediate response is going against his outlook," the trader added.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil May contract rose 0.48 percent in early Asian trade, while the most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 1.45 percent.
Figures from last week showed strength in Malaysian palm exports in the first 10 days of April, which rose 29.4 percent from the same period the previous month, according to cargo survey company Societe Generale de Surveillance.
Palm oil may end its current rebound around a resistance at 2,165 ringgit per tonne, and then fall towards a support at 2,137 ringgit, as indicated by a Fibonacci retracement analysis, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
In other markets, oil prices inched up on Monday following a strong session on Friday, as financial traders increased their bets on higher prices amid a slowdown in U.S. drilling, but analysts warned fundamentals remained weak.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0544 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAY5 2156 +18.00 2156 2170 1273
MY PALM OIL JUN5 2143 +15.00 2142 2160 10345
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP5 4670 +26.00 4636 4688 355016
CHINA SOYOIL SEP5 5442 +72.00 5368 5458 530576
CBOT SOY OIL MAY5 31.29 +0.10 30.92 31.36 5190
INDIA PALM OIL APR5 432.50 +0.10 432.50 434.80 136
INDIA SOYOIL APR5 600.75 +2.10 600.10 603.00 2385
NYMEX CRUDE MAY5 51.75 +0.11 51.47 51.99 10608
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.7040 ringgit)
($1 = 6.2140 Chinese yuan)
($1 = 62.3700 Indian rupees)