MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Indonesia Dec Palm Oil Output Seen 6 Pct Lower -Reuters Survey
Indonesia Dec Palm Oil Output Seen 6 Pct Lower -Reuters Survey
16/01/2015 (Reuters) - Indonesian crude palm oil output is estimated to have fallen around 6 percent in December from November, hit by a seasonal downturn in production, a survey of leading industry officials showed.
Palm output was 2.165 million tonnes in December in the world's top producer, according to the median estimate in a Reuters survey of four Indonesian industry officials and plantation companies, versus 2.306 million tonnes in November.
"I suspect it is due to seasonality factors because typically December is the peak but this year it was earlier," said Maybank Investment Bank analyst Ong Chee Ting.
The lower palm production cycle usually starts in the third or fourth quarter before bottoming out in the first quarter, said Ting, adding that last year the downturn kicked off in the third quarter.
Leading Southeast Asian palm producing countries have also entered their monsoon season, when thunderstorms and flooding can delay harvesting and hinder the transport of fruit to mills.
Growers in the world's second-biggest palm producer Malaysia are struggling with the aftermath of the worst monsoon floods in decades, which destroyed transportation and processing infrastructure in some states.
The median estimate for Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports in December was 1.837 million tonnes, down from 2.1 million tonnes last month. Inventories were seen at 2.325 million tonnes, compared to 2.225 million tonnes in November.
Indonesian palm exports usually track production trends, said Ting, adding that the upcoming Lunar New Year festivities may boost vegetable oil demand in January.
Palm oil exports to India are expected to slow in January, after the world's biggest vegetable oil importer raised the import tax on crude edible oils and refined oils by 5 percentage points each to protect local farmers.
In an effort to aid palm sellers, Indonesia kept its crude palm oil export tax at zero for January, allowing duty-free exports for the fourth straight month.
Reliable palm oil data is difficult to find in Indonesia. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) publishes monthly data provided by a professional surveyor, which showed 2.47 million tonnes of exports in October.
The monthly Reuters survey includes contributions from GAPKI, the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association and PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology, one of the largest listed palm companies.
Below is a table of median Reuters CPO survey results for 2014 (all forecasts are in million tonnes):
Palm output was 2.165 million tonnes in December in the world's top producer, according to the median estimate in a Reuters survey of four Indonesian industry officials and plantation companies, versus 2.306 million tonnes in November.
"I suspect it is due to seasonality factors because typically December is the peak but this year it was earlier," said Maybank Investment Bank analyst Ong Chee Ting.
The lower palm production cycle usually starts in the third or fourth quarter before bottoming out in the first quarter, said Ting, adding that last year the downturn kicked off in the third quarter.
Leading Southeast Asian palm producing countries have also entered their monsoon season, when thunderstorms and flooding can delay harvesting and hinder the transport of fruit to mills.
Growers in the world's second-biggest palm producer Malaysia are struggling with the aftermath of the worst monsoon floods in decades, which destroyed transportation and processing infrastructure in some states.
The median estimate for Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports in December was 1.837 million tonnes, down from 2.1 million tonnes last month. Inventories were seen at 2.325 million tonnes, compared to 2.225 million tonnes in November.
Indonesian palm exports usually track production trends, said Ting, adding that the upcoming Lunar New Year festivities may boost vegetable oil demand in January.
Palm oil exports to India are expected to slow in January, after the world's biggest vegetable oil importer raised the import tax on crude edible oils and refined oils by 5 percentage points each to protect local farmers.
In an effort to aid palm sellers, Indonesia kept its crude palm oil export tax at zero for January, allowing duty-free exports for the fourth straight month.
Reliable palm oil data is difficult to find in Indonesia. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) publishes monthly data provided by a professional surveyor, which showed 2.47 million tonnes of exports in October.
The monthly Reuters survey includes contributions from GAPKI, the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association and PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology, one of the largest listed palm companies.
Below is a table of median Reuters CPO survey results for 2014 (all forecasts are in million tonnes):
Month Output Exports Inventories
December 2.165 1.837 2.325
November 2.306 2.100 2.225
October 2.385 1.820 2.378
September 2.675 1.750 2.500
August 2.750 1.720 2.575