BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China is gaining increasing clout as a large buyer ofgrains and oilseeds in the international market, but the scarcity ofreliable statistics on its domestic market is making it difficult forgrowers, traders and consumers to make correct decisions on market trends.A recently concluded grains conference in Beijing was a case in point.Those participants who were lucky to glean any numbers were told thedata were "tentative", "discussional", or worse still, "not for publicdistribution.""From my perspective, it would seem more appropriate for the rest ofthe world to rely on China for information it can provide, than be subjectto market speculation and balance sheets prepared by foreign analysts,"said Gerald A. Bange, chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board atthe U.S. Department of Agriculture, who was in Beijing last weekend toattend the gathering.In 2003, China's State Grain Administration applied to the NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission for permission to regularly report onstockpiles.That approval is yet to be given, an official at the grain agency toldDow Jones Newswires.According to a researcher working for an investment company inShanghai, most analysts now take USDA estimates on China's production andstocks as benchmarks."It would be good if the (Chinese) government could report figures(such as) grain stocks regularly, (so) we can compare them with USDAestimates and our own research," the researcher told Dow Jones Newswires.When contacted, an official at the International CooperationDepartment at the Ministry of Agriculture said grain output estimates havebeen previously published.Relying on outside information to gauge China's domestic situation canalso prove tricky sometimes."In a way, volatile price movements in the past few months reflectedsome irrational judgments made due to insufficient information," said ananalyst with an agriculture consulting company in Beijing.

China's Real Agriculture Demand Always A Wildcard

Although most market participants use USDA data as a benchmark, giventhe lack of information from within China, their accuracy is hard toguarantee.For example, in May, the USDA had to more than double its estimate ofChina's corn stocks for the 2003/2004 marketing year to 44 million metrictons from 21 million tons. This led to an increase of nearly 30% in thetotal world corn inventory for the 2003/2004 marketing year.Conventional wisdom would suggest corn prices would take a savage hitwith such a large adjustment in supply.But global corn prices were little changed despite the announcement."It seems the market had factored in a higher corn stock level inChina than the USDA's estimate," a trader said.According to Zhu Changguo, deputy director of the State GrainAdministration, China was a net exporter of 1.45 million tons of cornduring the January-May period this year, giving credence to the assumptionthat China's corn stocks were higher than estimated by the USDA."We encourage the government of China to publish grain stocksestimates similar to the quarterly grain stocks estimates published by theU.S.," said USDA's Bange.The "Chinese are doing well compared to what they were doing manyyears ago," Bange said.

China Making Progress, But Reliability Of Data Still An Issue

Bange said the U.S. has been cooperating with China's government since1995 to collate agricultural statistics."Chinese are making progress, and we encourage them to make (more)progress in this area," he said.But Bange said with China's importance to the world agriculturaleconomy, the U.S. will continue to dedicate substantial analyticalresources to forecasting and assessing developments in its farm sector.In a country without mandatory disclosure requirements on economicdata such as grain and metals stocks, and with these numbers often seen aspolitically sensitive, government officials believe secrecy is still thesafest career option.But some attitudes are changing."The accuracy of these data and the merits of guarding them is worthyof a question mark," Ke Bingsheng, director of the Rural Economy ResearchCenter under China's Ministry of Agriculture, told the weekend conference.And while waiting for change, people on the ground continue to rely ontheir own estimates, which seems like the best bet."Luckily we have an extensive network around the country. We knowevery local market in terms of corn supply and demand," he said.