(The opinions expressed in this article represent the views of leadingpalm oil market analyst Ivan Wong. They should not be seen as necessarilyreflecting the views of Reuters)KUALA LUMPUR, July 22 - Our estimate on palm oil supply and offtake inJune is very much in line with MPOB figures. On the supply side, CPOproduction rose 6.4 percent, or 70,500 tonnes, to 1.17 million tonnes.This is 5000 tonnes higher than our estimate and reflected primarily anincrease of 3.4 percent, or 14,700 tonnes, in East Malaysia. Production inSabah managed to post an increase of 3.8 percent, or 13,600 tonnes, withthe oil extraction rate (OER) remaining unchanged at 21.08 percent, asagainst our expectation to a decline. The oil extraction rate in Sarawakdropped to 20.61 percent from 21.39 percent in May and trimmed theincrease in CPO output to just 1.4 percent. On an annual basis, productionshrank four percent in the country. This was an improvement from acontraction of 6.3 percent in May and 7.4 percent in April. This recoveryin yields is expected to be extended into July with the contraction likelyto be around two percent. Yields are projected to reverse to positive fromAugust onwards. Production in July is tentatively estimated to register amonth-on-month increase of eight percent. This assumes no further declinesin the oil extraction rate in both Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia.Production in January-June at 5.957 million tonnes posted a negativegrowth of 2.3 percent and fell short of MPOB projections by 3.8 percent.The MPOB is nevertheless confident production for the whole year willregister a positive growth of one to two percent. MPOB's projection forthe whole year is achievable if the downtrend in the oil extraction ratein East Malaysia is not extended into the second-half year. It had droppedto 21.06 percent in the first-six months form 21.46 percent in thecorresponding period of last year. In contrast, the oil extraction rate inPeninsular Malaysia rose to 19.15 percent from 18.59 percent.Palm oil offtake fell some 55,000 tonnes to 1.05 million tonnes inJune. The decline was due entirely to disappointing exports which droppedto 886,400 tonnes. However, it would not surprise us if the final exportfigure is revised upward closer to 900,000 tonnes. On an annual basis,palm oil exports fell a hefty 161,700 tonnes in June. This was the biggestmonthly contraction so far this year and the fourth consecutive month ofshrinkage. Shipments in the three months to June contracted 335,000 tonnesto 2.785 million tonnes. This more than offset the growth of 222,800tonnes in the first quarter. January-June shipments consequently fell112,400 tonnes ot 5.532 million tonnes. The negative export performancewas due predominantly to a hefty drop of 455,000 tonnes, or 51.7 percent,to 425,400 tonnes in shipments to India, as India had slashed its importsof palm oil by 458,000 tonnes in January-June. Malaysia was thus the soleloser - its palm oil market share shrank to 26.3 percent from 12.4 percentin January-June last year and 58.3 percent two year ago.If loss of market share in India is not bad enough, Malaysia has alsoemerged as a major and growing market for Indonesian palm oil exports.Malaysia's palm oil imports in January-June surged 84.4 percent or 196,900tonnes to 430,300 tonnes. Given the poor export performance and robustimports, it is thus not difficult to understand why palm oil stocks inMalaysia at the end of June had risen to 1.211 million tonnes. Thisrepresents an increase of 165,600 tonnes from a month earlier and anincrease of 252,900 tonnes from end-March. Compared to June last year,stocks were 216,000 tonnes higher. Despite prospects of a marked recoveryin exports to 1.07 million tonnes this month, we see a further big buildupin stocks to above 1.3 million tonnes by the end of the month.India had drastically reduced its imports of edible oils by 941,400tonnes to 2.404 million tonnes during the eight-month period to June 2004.In April-June alone imports slumped 996,600 tonnes to 773,900 tonnes oraround 245,000 tonnes a month. This severe reduction was due primarily tothe negative response of the market to high price during March-May,especially when exorbilantly high import duties are taken intoconsideration. India cannot deny it has both tariff and non-tariffbarriers to discourage what it deems excessive imports. It raised theimport duty on RBD olein/RBD palm oil from 70 percent to 75 percent onJuly 8 and avoided the urgency to lower the tariff values on palm oil whenit conveniently ignored transacted values in recent weeks which had fallen18 percent since November last year. Vegoil price in India andinternational markets firmed in recent days on account of concerns overthe lack of rains in major oilseed growing areas in India in the pastthree weeks.