MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Palm-Kernel to Coconut Oil Exports Are Seen Advancing
Palm-Kernel to Coconut Oil Exports Are Seen Advancing
10/09/2014 (Bloomberg) - Shipments of palm-kernel oil and coconut oil are expected to climb in 2014-15, rebounding from a year-earlier slide in part as coconut production in the Philippines recovers from typhoon damage, Oil World said.
Exports of both fats, known as lauric oils for their high content of lauric acid, may climb to 5.4 million metric tons from 5.01 million tons in 2013-14, the Hamburg-based oilseed-industry researcher wrote in an e-mailed report.
Philippines coconut-oil production is predicted to climb to 1.34 million tons, after slumping to 1.22 million tons in 2013-14 from 1.62 million tons a year earlier due to typhoon damage. The slide left coconut oil prices at a $225 per ton premium to palm-kernel oil as of Sept. 3, Oil World said.
“Supply disruptions, primarily in coconut oil, and high price volatility have interrupted the strong growth of global demand for lauric oils in recent years,” Oil World wrote. “We expect world exports of coconut oil to recover from the multi-year low.”
Palm-kernel oil in Rotterdam traded at $870 a ton last week, unchanged from the end of August, while coconut oil was also stable at $1,090 a ton, according to the report.
“The price premiums of coconut oil over palm oil and palm-kernel oil are likely to stay above average in the foreseeable future, but will probably soon ease from the current unusually high levels,” Oil World said.
Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines in November 2013, caused damage to residential, commercial and agricultural properties valued at $6.5 billion to $14.5 billion, according to estimates by catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide. The typhoon damaged 33 million coconut trees in the Philippines’ Eastern Visayas region alone, and new trees take six to eight years after planting to reach full production potential, according to the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization.
Indonesian Production
Production of palm-kernel oil will rise to 6.73 million tons in the year through September 2015 from 6.47 million tons, with output in Indonesia climbing to 3.42 million tons from 3.22 million tons, the researcher forecast.
Coconut oil output is forecast to rise to 3.25 million tons from 3.16 million tons, led by the increase in the Philippines. That would still be down from 3.45 million tons in 2012-13, according to the data.
World palm kernel-oil exports are predicted to advance to 3.45 million tons from 3.13 million tons, while shipments of coconut oils will probably climb to 1.95 million tons from 1.88 million tons, Oil World wrote.
Global consumption of lauric oils is seen rising to a record 9.99 million tons from 9.53 million tons in 2013-14 and climbing 3.2 million tons from a decade go.
Exports of both fats, known as lauric oils for their high content of lauric acid, may climb to 5.4 million metric tons from 5.01 million tons in 2013-14, the Hamburg-based oilseed-industry researcher wrote in an e-mailed report.
Philippines coconut-oil production is predicted to climb to 1.34 million tons, after slumping to 1.22 million tons in 2013-14 from 1.62 million tons a year earlier due to typhoon damage. The slide left coconut oil prices at a $225 per ton premium to palm-kernel oil as of Sept. 3, Oil World said.
“Supply disruptions, primarily in coconut oil, and high price volatility have interrupted the strong growth of global demand for lauric oils in recent years,” Oil World wrote. “We expect world exports of coconut oil to recover from the multi-year low.”
Palm-kernel oil in Rotterdam traded at $870 a ton last week, unchanged from the end of August, while coconut oil was also stable at $1,090 a ton, according to the report.
“The price premiums of coconut oil over palm oil and palm-kernel oil are likely to stay above average in the foreseeable future, but will probably soon ease from the current unusually high levels,” Oil World said.
Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines in November 2013, caused damage to residential, commercial and agricultural properties valued at $6.5 billion to $14.5 billion, according to estimates by catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide. The typhoon damaged 33 million coconut trees in the Philippines’ Eastern Visayas region alone, and new trees take six to eight years after planting to reach full production potential, according to the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization.
Indonesian Production
Production of palm-kernel oil will rise to 6.73 million tons in the year through September 2015 from 6.47 million tons, with output in Indonesia climbing to 3.42 million tons from 3.22 million tons, the researcher forecast.
Coconut oil output is forecast to rise to 3.25 million tons from 3.16 million tons, led by the increase in the Philippines. That would still be down from 3.45 million tons in 2012-13, according to the data.
World palm kernel-oil exports are predicted to advance to 3.45 million tons from 3.13 million tons, while shipments of coconut oils will probably climb to 1.95 million tons from 1.88 million tons, Oil World wrote.
Global consumption of lauric oils is seen rising to a record 9.99 million tons from 9.53 million tons in 2013-14 and climbing 3.2 million tons from a decade go.