NEW DELHI, July 30 (Reuters) - India's monsoon rains, vital for thefarm-dependent economy, have been below normal so far but the forecast isgood for the rest of the four-month season barring the largely drynorthwest, officials said on Friday.A weather official told Reuters the crucial June-September monsoon wasnearly 15 percent below normal in the first two months of the season,while in the northwest it was 28.5 percent below normal.A senior India Meteorological Department official, M. Rajeevan, saidwhile July was bad, a low pressure system was bringing good rains to theoilseed-growing central and western regions.He said rains in July, vital for the flowering of crops, were 20percent below normal with the week ended July 28 registering 39 percentless than normal rains.The IMD had forecast this year's monsoon rains to be 100 percent of thelong-period average, but rains in large parts of the country have beenerratic.But officials said the situation was not likely to be as bad as 2002when the country suffered its worst drought in 15 years. "This year we arenot as bad as 2002 when we got only half of the rainfall in July,"Rajeevan said."The second half of the season is likely to be far better than thefirst half," he said. "But it is not clear if this system will bring goodrains to the north."Rajeevan said rainfall activity was expected sustain, at least untilmid-August, over central and western India. "After that we will have tosee if another low pressure system is formed and it brings rains to thenorth."Indian shares rose higher in early trade on Friday as investors wereencouraged by the improved monsoon outlook and firmer global indices.CAUSE FOR CONCERNNearly 60 percent of India's billion-plus population depend on the farmsector to earn a livelihood and bad rains wipe out their incomes which iscrucial for industrial growth.A finance ministry official said on Thursday deficient rains in someparts, mainly in the desert state of Rajasthan and the cotton andoilseed-growing industrially-rich western state of Gujarat, were a causeof concern for the economy.States in the rice and cotton growing northwestern region are facing adrought-like situation. Groundnut and soybean, the season's main oilseedcrops, have also been hit by erratic rains in the key central and westernregions.The federal food ministry has planned better stocking of grains indrought-affected states on a priority basis.Food Secretary S.K. Tuteja has asked the Food Corporation of India(FCI) to maintain a minimum stock for three months in the states of AndhraPradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.Officials said there was no shortage of grains and the government hadenough stocks to tide over the situation.On July 1, India had grain stocks of 29.9 million tonnes comprising19.15 million tonnes of wheat and 10.76 million tonnes of rice, well abovethe buffer norm of 24.3 million tonnes of grains.Analysts expect the Indian economy to grow slower than earlierexpectation of 7 percent in 2004/05 (April-March) due to the poor monsoonrains and high oil prices. It grew at 8.2 percent in the previous year,the fastest in nearly 15 years.(Additional reporting by Atul Prakash in BOMBAY and Hari Ramachandran inNEW DELHI)((Editing by Sugita Katyal; Reuters