MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm Prices Touch 1-Year High, Further Gains Expected
VEGOILS-Palm Prices Touch 1-Year High, Further Gains Expected
02/11/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures briefly rose to a fresh one-year high on Friday, as strong Asian demand coupled with lower production expectations supported prices.
Both Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for the lion's share of global palm oil production, are entering their monsoon weather season, traders and analysts say, with output also likely to be dented by a lower production cycle as yields have eased from last year.
By midday, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange traded 0.2 percent higher at 2,599 ringgit ($820) per tonne.
Earlier, benchmark prices rose to 2,603 ringgit, its highest level since Oct. 25, 2012, and have gained about 7 percent for the year to date.
"The market is holding very well," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "We are not going to have high production, due to wet weather conditions.
"The market still looks friendly so there is room to go higher," he said, adding that both Chinese and Indian demand remained strong. "If the market comes down, it will likely be due to profit taking."
Total traded volume stood at 16,574 lots of 25 tonnes each, above the usual 12,500 lots.
Technicals showed Malaysian palm oil's bullish target of 2,630 ringgit per tonne remains unchanged, based on its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
"Demand should remain fairly stable in view of the upcoming festive events like Chinese New Year and rising biodiesel mandates in Indonesia," CIMB Analyst Ivy Ng said in a note.
"The improvement in CPO (crude palm oil) price could be sustained into early-2014."
In other markets, Brent futures rose above $109 a barrel on expectations of steady demand growth as the manufacturing sector in China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, expanded at its fastest pace in 18 months.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for December rose 0.4 percent in early Asian trade. The most-active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange gained slightly.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0519 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL NOV3 2611 -12.00 2611 2615 20
MY PALM OIL DEC3 2603 +3.00 2585 2610 1062
MY PALM OIL JAN4 2599 +6.00 2576 2603 9968
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 6306 +6.00 6290 6336 455592
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 7226 +14.00 7200 7260 625224
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 41.50 +0.17 41.35 41.62 2022
NYMEX CRUDE DEC3 96.49 +0.11 96.23 96.58 3469
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.1555 Malaysian ringgit)
Both Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for the lion's share of global palm oil production, are entering their monsoon weather season, traders and analysts say, with output also likely to be dented by a lower production cycle as yields have eased from last year.
By midday, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange traded 0.2 percent higher at 2,599 ringgit ($820) per tonne.
Earlier, benchmark prices rose to 2,603 ringgit, its highest level since Oct. 25, 2012, and have gained about 7 percent for the year to date.
"The market is holding very well," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "We are not going to have high production, due to wet weather conditions.
"The market still looks friendly so there is room to go higher," he said, adding that both Chinese and Indian demand remained strong. "If the market comes down, it will likely be due to profit taking."
Total traded volume stood at 16,574 lots of 25 tonnes each, above the usual 12,500 lots.
Technicals showed Malaysian palm oil's bullish target of 2,630 ringgit per tonne remains unchanged, based on its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
"Demand should remain fairly stable in view of the upcoming festive events like Chinese New Year and rising biodiesel mandates in Indonesia," CIMB Analyst Ivy Ng said in a note.
"The improvement in CPO (crude palm oil) price could be sustained into early-2014."
In other markets, Brent futures rose above $109 a barrel on expectations of steady demand growth as the manufacturing sector in China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, expanded at its fastest pace in 18 months.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for December rose 0.4 percent in early Asian trade. The most-active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange gained slightly.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0519 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL NOV3 2611 -12.00 2611 2615 20
MY PALM OIL DEC3 2603 +3.00 2585 2610 1062
MY PALM OIL JAN4 2599 +6.00 2576 2603 9968
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 6306 +6.00 6290 6336 455592
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 7226 +14.00 7200 7260 625224
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 41.50 +0.17 41.35 41.62 2022
NYMEX CRUDE DEC3 96.49 +0.11 96.23 96.58 3469
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.1555 Malaysian ringgit)