Sun Oct 3,11:26 PM Science - SINGAPORE (Reuters) - After a seeminglyunending string of hurricanes and typhoons, talk that the "little boy" isstirring in the Pacific is unwelcome news for weather-battered farmers.

International weather forecasters are warning that the phenomenon known asEl Nino could rear up over the next few months, possibly bringing a wrathof flooding in some parts of the Americas and crop-busting droughts inSoutheast Asia and Australia.

"For a month and a half there have been different forecasts raising theprobability there will be an El Nino," said Tobin Gorey, an economist atthe Commonwealth Bank in Sydney. "So it's been bubbling in the backgroundfor a while."

El Nino, the "little boy" or "Christ Child" in Spanish, occurs whensurface water temperatures remain warmer than usual in the Pacific offSouth America. A weakening of trade winds may add to the problem.

The impact can be far reaching, as it was in 1997-98, when it producedstrange weather patterns around the world. In 2002, a so-called mild ElNino caused big disruptions in Australia.

"The weak-to-moderate El Nino in 2002-03 caused widespread drought,devastating agricultural regions across much of Australia," said MikeCoughlan, head of the National Climate Center at the Australian Bureau ofMeteorology.

RISK TO CHINA

Mark Spencer, chief equity strategist for Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, saida range of companies in agriculture could be hard hit and big importingcountries such as China would have to deal with a sharp run-up in pricesif a drought impairs global harvests.

"Should it occur over the next few months it could have significant localeffects," Spencer said.

India is already blaming the phenomenon for weakening this year's monsoon,which is crucial for the country's crops.

"If the warming had not taken place, we could have received good rains inthe monsoon season," said M. Rajeevan, a director at the IndiaMeteorological Department.

Warming during the monsoon season is not good for India but would bebeneficial for the country if it starts before the rainy season and coolsduring the monsoon, he said.

Malaysia and Thailand, which both suffered big losses in the 1997-98 ElNino, are wary of another event hampering their output for such exportstaples as rice and palm oil.

"There is a tendency that it could form next year," said an official atthe meteorological department's climatology division.

Malaysia said an El Nino lasting four months would cut its world-leadingpalm oil production by 20 percent.

"If an El Nino starts from December, its effect on Malaysian crops will befelt from September 2005," said M.R. Chandran, chief executive of theMalaysian Palm Oil Association. "Dry weather will affect palm buds, whichneed moisture to survive.Vietnamese officials believe El Nino has already emerged in the region,but that it is less serious than when it struck the country with severedroughts in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.

"The return of El Nino is very much obvious, (it is) at its startingstage," said Le Thi Xuan Lan, a state weather official.

Lan said El Nino has since the end of June caused three minor, abnormaldry spells in southern Vietnam, home to the country's coffee belt and theMekong Delta rice basket.

Vietnam is the world's top robusta coffee exporter and ranks second afterThailand in rice exports.

Lan said while rice and coffee crops would be safe, the El Nino would dumpthree or four storms on Vietnam's coast between now and the year end,affecting the country's fisheries.

"While the farmers growing the winter-spring rice crop would benefit fromthe rains in November or December, fishing ships could be at risk at thattime of the year," Lan said, referring to Vietnam's highest yielding,export quality rice crop. (Additional reporting by Ho Binh Minh in Hanoi,Michael Byrnes in Sydney and Atul Prakash in Bombay)