VEGOILS-Palm Oil Almost Flat As Lower Stocks Offset USDA Data
12/03/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures were almost flat on Monday, as lower palm oil stocks in the country offset a slightly bearish report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) last week.
The USDA raised its global stockpile estimate for soybeans against expectations of a slight decline, and as a result also increased the inventory of soybean oil, a scenario that could shift some demand away from competing palm oil.
"By itself, the news of the higher soybean oil inventory should be slightly negative to crude palm oil prices as both commodities are commonly used as the substitute for each other," Alan Lim Seong Chun, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, told clients in a note.
"But despite the short-term weakness seen, price downside should be limited, due to the expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil stocks."
Malaysia's February palm oil stocks fell 5.2 percent to 2.44 million tonnes from 2.58 million in January, industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board said after the midday break.
The inventory fall was less than the drop to the 2.42 million level expected in a Reuters survey for stocks in the world's No.2 palm oil producer.
At market close, the benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was almost unchanged at 2,449 ringgit ($787) per tonne, but was off a high of 2,467 ringgit, a level unseen since Feb. 26.
Total traded volume stood at 31,687 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
The slightly bearish USDA data and high vegetable oil stocks also weighed on Chinese soybean oil, with the most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falling to the lowest since July 2010.
U.S. soyoil for May delivery edged down 0.1 percent in late Asian trade.
Technicals showed palm oil faces a resistance at 2,450 ringgit per tonne, and may retrace to 2,400 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
Malaysian palm oil export data for March 1-10 failed to lift the market as cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported shipments at 441,025 tonnes, almost flat with last month.
Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a slight 2.2 percent increase in exports for the same period.
Crude palm oil exports fell by half from last month as Malaysia raised its export tax for the grade to 4.5 percent this month from zero.
In other markets, Brent futures slipped further below $111 on Monday as the latest data from China pointed to an uneven economic recovery in the world's second-biggest oil consumer and raised demand growth concerns, while a stronger dollar put more pressure on prices.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1006 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAR3 2450 +16.00 2430 2450 137
MY PALM OIL APR3 2442 +3.00 2423 2455 2116
MY PALM OIL MAY3 2449 +1.00 2433 2467 17223
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP3 6578 -46.00 6576 6636 450108
CHINA SOYOIL SEP3 8200 -122.00 8194 8322 860342
CBOT SOY OIL MAY3 50.30 -0.04 50.16 50.58 3372
NYMEX CRUDE APR3 91.67 -0.28 91.52 91.92 13805
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.1 ringgit)