VEGOILS-Palm Oil Rises To One-Week High, Industry Data Eyed
07/03/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a one-week high on Thursday, drawing support from expectations of a bullish industry report and a lower palm oil inventory level, although gains were curbed by investor caution.
Traders are looking ahead to Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, which is expected to trim its outlook for soybean supplies, according to a Reuters poll.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board's report on the country's February inventory level due on Monday may also sway the market, with a Reuters survey of five plantation companies showing stocks may drop to a 6-month low on seasonal slowing output.
But investor caution remained after leading analysts presented differing price forecasts for the year at the biggest annual meeting on the edible oil, which ended on Wednesday.
"The palm market is still undecided on which direction to go yet. Now we're all looking at the soy side and the USDA data tomorrow," said a Singapore-based trader with a global commodities house.
"As you can see, the market is still under pressure as traders don't dare to put much hope into it yet," the trader added, referring to the slightly bullish USDA report.
The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 1.5 percent at 2,435 ringgit ($785) per tonne, slightly below its intraday high at 2,442 ringgit, a level unseen since Feb. 27.
Total traded volume stood at 28,800 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
Price forecasts from six speakers at the Bursa Malaysia palm oil conference in the Malaysian capital ranged from 1,800 to 3,200 ringgit, with the main focus on top analysts James Fry and Dorab Mistry.
Mistry was neutral on near-term prices, saying prices should range between 2,300 and 2,500 ringgit until the end of April but might fall after that, while a more bullish Fry expected prices to climb to 2,625 ringgit by mid-year on biodiesel demand.
In other markets, Brent crude futures steadied around $111 per barrel on Thursday as traders eyed central bank meetings and economic data this week to get a better picture on the prospects for oil demand in the world's top consumers.
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery gained 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down 1 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1015 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAR3 2420 +34.00 2380 2420 144
MY PALM OIL APR3 2430 +39.00 2381 2436 1865
MY PALM OIL MAY3 2435 +36.00 2384 2442 16002
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP3 6570 -52.00 6566 6636 485582
CHINA SOYOIL SEP3 8258 -80.00 8246 8336 621474
CBOT SOY OIL MAY3 50.31 +0.05 49.85 50.36 4298
NYMEX CRUDE APR3 90.79 +0.36 90.22 90.83 10476
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.1 ringgit)