VEGOILS-Palm Oil Falls on Weak Exports, Eyes Weekly Gain
25/01/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Friday, on track to snap four straight sessions of gains, as weak exports and a move by India to raise its base import price of crude palm oil prompted traders to book profits.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-25 fell 14 percent to 1,102,585 tonnes from 1,283,704 tonnes in the Dec. 1-25 period, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Friday.
India's move to raise the base import price of crude palm oil by nearly 80 percent also stoked concerns it could neutralise export duty cuts by major producers Indonesia and Malaysia, although analysts said that its effect may be more pronounced in the long run.
"We are neutral on the news, as the crude palm oil price should have priced this in previously. However, in the long run the new rule may prompt Indian refineries to use local crude palm oil first before importing from Malaysia and Indonesia," said Alan Lim Seong Chun, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank.
"Our major concern is still on Malaysia's inventory, which we think will reach another record high of 2.66 million tonnes by end-January. This should limit price upside."
By the midday break, the benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had lost 1.2 percent to 2,451 ringgit ($804) per tonne.
Total traded volumes stood at 14,366 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 12,500 lots.
For the week, palm oil is on track to post a gain of 2.1 percent, on concerns that dry weather in South America could hurt soybean and soybean oil production, shifting some demand to the cheaper palm oil.
Technical analysis shows palm oil is likely to seek support at 2,449 ringgit and rise again to test resistance at 2,486 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Despite seasonally lower production, market participants still fear that Malaysian palm oil stocks that hit a record 2.63 million tonnes in December could climb higher this month due to weak exports.
Shipments to major consumer China fell amid high port stocks and as the stricter quality rule on edible oil imports prompted some exporters to hold back shipments. European demand also plunged more than 50 percent on seasonal factors.
Brent crude held above $113 on Friday, on track to post a second week of gains as positive economic data from the United States and China lifted the fuel demand outlook at the world's two largest oil consumers.
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for March delivery edged up 0.1 percent in early Asian trade. The most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange slipped 0.1 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0534 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL FEB3 2375 -35.00 2375 2378 169
MY PALM OIL MAR3 2420 -33.00 2420 2436 1396
MY PALM OIL APR3 2451 -30.00 2450 2466 6698
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP3 7034 -14.00 7024 7076 206194
CHINA SOYOIL SEP3 8728 +2.00 8716 8760 261066
CBOT SOY OIL MAR3 52.16 +0.05 52.01 52.30 2637
NYMEX CRUDE MAR3 95.86 -0.09 95.75 96.02 4110
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.05 ringgit)