VEGOILS-Palm Oil Futures Slip on Record Stock Woes
06/12/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped 0.3 percent on Wednesday as expectations of record stocks in November weighed on sentiment, although traders are looking at higher exports and slowing output this month.
Traders are counting on demand to kick in as forward palm oil futures are at a discount to the 3-month benchmark on high stocks. A Reuters survey showed palm oil stocks in November probably grew 2.8 percent to a record 2.58 million tonnes.
More orders are expected from China, the world's No.2 edible oil buyer, before the government imposes stricter quality rules on palm oil cargoes from Jan. 2013.
Higher exports could support palm oil futures that have lost nearly 28 percent this year in their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.
"The market dropped a little on stocks, the bottom is nearing. We can't be going any lower as exports are going higher in December and production will come off," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 0.3 percent at 2,287 ringgit ($750) per tonne after treading higher in the morning session. The previous day, the contract fell to 2,279, its lowest since Nov. 12.
Total traded volumes rose to 37,113 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.
Reuters market analyst Wang Tao kept a bearish target of 2,200 ringgit per tonne as there was no indication on a possible bullish reversal on this trend.
Malaysian crude palm oil shipments are expected to rise in the next few weeks as planters rush to exhaust their annual tax-free export quota allocation totalling 3.5 million tonnes and which is set to expire at the end of December.
While this may support prices, for now, palm oil is treading lower compared to other commodity markets.
Brent crude edged above $110 a barrel on Wednesday, after two sessions of losses, as investors switched their focus from the United States fiscal crisis to hopes that growth in top energy consumer China to pick up sooner than expected.
In palm oil's competing markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery edged up 0.5 percent as traders grew concerned that unfriendly crop weather would cut global soy supplies.
The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also rose 0.7 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1009 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL DEC2 2105 +5.00 2105 2129 57
MY PALM OIL JAN3 2208 -10.00 2197 2231 2623
MY PALM OIL FEB3 2287 -7.00 2275 2312 13458
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY3 6836 +72.00 6770 6846 528584
CHINA SOYOIL MAY3 8710 +62.00 8668 8728 478530
CBOT SOY OIL JAN3 50.27 +0.21 49.96 50.48 7208
NYMEX CRUDE JAN3 88.86 +0.36 88.35 89.05 12612
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.0430 Malaysian ringgit)