Evening Markets: Cocoa, Palm Oil Miss Out on Gains in Ags
23/11/2012 (Agrimoney.com) - Thanksgiving-goers weren't the only ones upbeat on Thursday.
Financial markets witnessed positive sentiment, buoyed by HSBC survey data showing a return to growth in China's factory sector, for the first time in 13 months.
Even with US markets closed, London's FTSE 100 share index managed a 0.7% gain, following headway by Asian stocks overnight.
And agricultural commodities, bar oilseeds, made some headway too.
Palm down
Oilseeds felt the pressure from a weak close for palm oil, down 1.3% at 2,411 ringgit a tonne in Kuala Lumpur, continuing to be undermined by data indicating slippage in Malaysian exports so far this month.
That comes despite prices being near three-year lows, a factor which might have been expected to encourage buyers.
As might palm oil's historically-high discount to rival vegetable oil soyoil, a gap flagged by Anglo-Eastern Plantations.
As an extra downer for the oilseeds complex, the Buenos Aires grains exchange highlighted the potential for farmers in Argentina, a major soyoil exporter, to yet sow more soybeans than the 19.7m hectares currently expected.
The high soil moisture levels encouraged by heavy rains, which delayed early-season seedings, bode well for plantings of second-crop soybeans, sown as a follow-up on land vacated by barley and wheat harvests.
Rapeseed for February eased 0.3% to E471.75 a tonne in Paris, while in Winnipeg, January canola dropped 0.3% to Can$578.50 a tonne.
'Bullish export outlook'
However, grains managed positive closes, helped by ideas of firm demand for European Union exports.
UK grain merchant Gleadell, flagging the latest downgrade, by 300,000 tonnes to 122.7m tonnes, to Strategie Grains' estimate for the 2012 EU soft wheat harvest, said that "the lower crop will again leave traders projecting a bullish export outlook with limited competition from weather-affected rivals".
The weather-hit autumn sowing season in Russia is the latest to rise up the agenda, after the farm ministry lopped nearly 1m hectares from its area estimate – although, with the reduction coming in low-yielding areas, influential analysis group SovEcon urged caution against getting too gloomy.
Still, even in the better-yielding South, where sowings have risen, dryness hanging over the summer (as in parts of the US) remains a challenge to seedlings.
Export data
Weekly EU wheat shipments, as measured by export licences, actually came in at 380,000 tonnes, well below the previous week's 696,000-tonne figure, but still a strong enough number to keep trade this season well ahead.
The EU has now shipped 6.8m tonnes of wheat so far in 2012-13, up from 6.1m tonnes at the same point last season.
Paris wheat for January added 0.4% to E270.25 a tonne, while London feed wheat for May edged 0.1% higher to £221.05 a tonne.
Cargill comfort
Among soft commodities markets, cocoa for March shed 0.8% to finish at £1,573 a tonne in London, undermined by a forecast from Cargill, which has a substantial cocoa operation among its broad array of businesses, of a balanced world market in 2012-13.
"This is in stark contrast to a number of other observers who anticipate a supply deficit to the tune of 100,000-150,000 tonnes," Commerzbank analysts said.
"The expectation of a deficit year on this scale had recently caused the cocoa price to climb to nearly $2,500 per tonne" in New York, and more than £1,700 in London.
"We regard the latest price rise to be excessive," the bank added.
Harder softs
But London robusta coffee for January added 0.6% to £1,874 a tonne, while white sugar for March gained 0.8% to £1,573 a tonne.
Sugar prices are being given support rains in Brazil which are curtailing cane harvesting and threaten plans by mills to stay open well into December.