17/10/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended slightly lower on Tuesday after top industry analysts projected weaker prices and as investors digested news that export tax cuts will only take effect next year.

Palm oil prices have fallen by a fifth since the start of the year, but they could drop further as stockpiles could reach as much as 3 million tonnes by the start of 2013, swollen by strong output and slowing exports, analysts said.

Adding to concerns over rising stocks was the government's decision to implement palm oil export tax cut only in January.

"The market is still trying to get a grip on how big stocks can get in Malaysia, as well as digesting news that the export taxes are not going to come through until early January," said ANZ agricultural commodity strategist Victor Thianpiriya.

"In the short term, this will probably depress prices a little bit, as consumers would prefer to wait until January and potentially source from Indonesia to bridge that gap."

At the close, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.2 percent to 2,466 ringgit ($808) per tonne. 

Total traded volumes stood at 40,889 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Technical analysis showed palm oil will be neutral until it gets out of a range of 2,361-2,528 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. 

Palm oil stocks in Malaysia hit a record 2.48 million tonnes in September, but strong export data in the first 15 days of October could help support prices.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-15 rose 13.1 percent to 769,534 tonnes from 680,112 tonnes last month, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Monday.

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance showed exports in the same period surged 16.3 percent to 768,550 tonnes.

In a bullish sign for palm oil, oil steadied above $115 on Tuesday, underpinned by supply concerns after the European Union slapped more sanctions on Iran, while ample supplies and hefty stockpiles in top consumer the United States capped gains.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery inched up 0.8 percent in late Asian trade. The most active January 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange ended 1.5 percent higher.

  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1003 GMT

  Contract        Month    Last   Change     Low    High  Volume
  MY PALM OIL      NOV2    2397   -10.00    2386    2450     367
  MY PALM OIL      DEC2    2435    +2.00    2410    2486    9179
  MY PALM OIL      JAN3    2466    -4.00    2443    2521   18735
  CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3    6926  +100.00    6862    6932  227924
  CHINA SOYOIL     JAN3    9138  +134.00    9042    9148  313738
  CBOT SOY OIL     DEC2   50.40    +0.41   50.01   50.74    8161
  NYMEX CRUDE      NOV2   91.83    -0.02   91.44   92.15   16778

  Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
  CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
  Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
  Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
  ($1 = 3.052 ringgit)