VEGOILS-Palm Oil Rises To One-Week High, Stocks May Weigh
10/10/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to their highest in more than a week on Tuesday, supported by a possible export tax change, while traders took positions ahead of key industry data due out this week.
Prices made some headway after a Malaysian government minister said on Monday his country will discuss possible changes to its crude palm oil export tax regime on Friday.
"We believe the current crude palm oil (CPO) price is still unjustifiably low. We expect prices to rebound further by year-end, as post high production, we expect CPO price to climb higher," said Hong Leong Investment Bank's Chye Wen Fei in a research note.
But stocks could still weigh on the market for now. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is set to announce record stocks in September on Wednesday.
"The upcoming MPOB inventory level should see it reaching an all-time high of 2.43 million tonnes, capping any strong price upside potentials," Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Alan Lim said in a note.
The benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange jumped 3 percent to close at 2,438 ringgit ($794) per tonne. Prices earlier went as high as 2,455 ringgit, a level last seen on Oct. 1.
Total traded volumes stood at 31,077 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
Palm oil may edge up to 2,503 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao based on a wave analysis.
Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's dominant palm oil producers, are in talks to form a joint body that will seek to support prices by reducing stocks and controlling supplies of the edible oil, government trade officials said on Tuesday.
Malaysia's Felda Global Ventures will develop oil palms in the southern Philippines after Manila agreed on a historic peace deal with Muslim rebels that could open up tracts of farm land, chief executive Sabri Ahmad said.
In a bullish sign for palm oil, oil rose on Tuesday after two days of losses, with tensions in the Middle East and the risk of supply disruptions outweighing concerns about sluggish global demand.
In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery gained 1.3 percent in late Asian trade.
The most active January 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 1.1 percent higher, recovering from previous day's 4-month low.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1008 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL OCT2 2268 +40.00 2250 2270 55
MY PALM OIL NOV2 2384 +70.00 2359 2388 1275
MY PALM OIL DEC2 2438 +70.00 2392 2455 18462
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3 7014 +96.00 6880 7046 560080
CHINA SOYOIL JAN3 9218 +104.00 9120 9228 373606
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 51.58 +0.65 50.93 51.69 8096
NYMEX CRUDE NOV2 89.80 +0.48 89.29 90.33 22058
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.069 ringgit)