VEGOILS-Palm Edges Up; Concerns of Slowing Growth Limit Gains
24/02/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed higher on Thursday although gains were limited by investor concern about slowing global growth that could curb commodity demand.
Prices rallied to new highs earlier this week as the second bailout deal for Greece boosted investor confidence, but worries have now set in on a longer-term growth outlook as fresh data showed the euro zone may slip into a recession.
"Right now the market is tracking external markets and not so much on crude palm oil fundamentals, which are not too bullish or bearish," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.
Benchmark May palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.7 percent to 3,272 ringgit ($1,086) per tonne. Prices hit a high of 3,294 ringgit on Wednesday, the highest since June 9 last year.
Traded volumes were thin at 22,589 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.
Reuters analyst Wang Tao said prices will consolidate in a range of 3,244-3,292 ringgit per tonne based on technical analysis.
Malaysian palm oil exports from Feb. 1 to 20 eased just 2 percent and 0.6 percent from a month ago, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance, respectively.
That indicated an improvement in demand prospects compared to a 14 percent decline for the first 15 days of the month. An improving demand outlook for the edible oil has lifted the futures market, which is up slightly above 3 percent so far this year.
"The market tone is rather neutral right now. Any acceleration in export pace will help as market expectation of an 8 percent drop in February production was largely factored in," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
Market players are keeping a close watch on export trends in Malaysia as it could offer clues on February stock levels, especially as palm oil is in a seasonally low production phase.
As Malaysia is expected to hold a national poll this year, the No.2 producer could delay a $2-billion listing of a state-linked palm oil firm as farmers' opposition to the deal risks undermining the ruling coalition.
Brent crude held steady on Thursday near a nine-month high of about $123 as supply worries caused by heightened tension between Iran and the West offset concern that a slowdown in the global economy could curb oil demand.
In related vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for March delivery and the most active September 2012 soyoil contract on China's Dalian Commodity exchange were almost flat.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1002 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAR2 3225 +9.00 3208 3225 208
MY PALM OIL APR2 3255 +14.00 3231 3255 2557
MY PALM OIL MAY2 3272 +22.00 3246 3273 11475
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP2 8364 -2.00 8312 8366 80786
CHINA SOYOIL SEP2 9404 +2.00 9342 9404 277572
CBOT SOY OIL MAR2 54.22 +0.00 53.91 54.25 3890
NYMEX CRUDE APR2 106.32 +0.04 105.72 106.67 15013
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
* Bursa Malaysia holds its annual Palm and Lauric Oils
Conference & Exhibition Price Outlook 2012 from March 5 to 7 in
Kuala Lumpur. For details, see www.pocmalaysia.com
($1=3.0135 ringgit)