MARKET DEVELOPMENT
05-01-2004
MALAYSIAN PALM SECXTOR EXPORTS SEEN SHINING THROUG
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil exports are expectedto remain strong through the first quarter of 2004 after a 13 percent jumpfor the whole of this year owing to short supplies of soyoil, analystssaid.A rally in prices was expected before March, as palm oil output goesinto a seasonal decline and supply of soyoil -- its main alternative --stays tight.Exports of palm oil until November officially stood at 11.4 milliontonnes, with an estimated 870,000 tonnes for December bringing theyear-end tally to around 12.3 million tonnes.Shipments for 2002 totalled 10.9 million tonnes."The way the U.S. and South American soybean production is going, itdoesn't look like the demand for palm is going to let up soon," said anoils trader in Kuala Lumpur."So, we could see another spike in prices between February and March,"he said, referring to the lowest production months for palm oil.Analysts said top soybean grower United States had hardly enough fromits drought-ravaged October harvest to cover world demand in comingmonths.Brazil and Argentina, two other major soy producers, were also close toexhausting their March harvest.In contrast, Malaysia, the world's biggest oil palm grower, saw abumper crop through 2003 owing to active expansion of cultivation groundsand good yields and weather.Leading crop watchers said Malaysian palm oil production was expectedto jump 10 percent to 13.2 million tonnes in 2003, but growth could beslower next year to touch around 13.8 million."This is because most palm trees may have topped their yields by nextyear but it's good because prices will be firm when productionconsolidates," said a grower.Palm oil futures on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) jumped 38percent over three months to December 11 after the U.S. Department ofAgriculture cut its 2003/04 soybean output forecast by 14 percent to 2.47billion bushels from earlier estimates.Record palm oil exports between July and September -- averaging 1.19million tonnes a month -- also fuelled the rally.But a slide in exports since November owing to the start of year-endholidays saw futures lose a chunk of their value.MDEX's benchmark third-month contract, which touched a year high of1,865 ringgit a tonne on December 9 from a low of 1,233 on August 4,closed on Tuesday at 1,771 ringgit -- just 95 ringgit up from a year ago.RBD palm olein, palm oil's main physical product, was quoted on Tuesdayat around $500 a tonne, about $40 higher than last year's closing."It's a pity we don't have much of a premium to show at the year-endbecause it's been one heck of a year for this market," said a futurestrader on the MDEX.($1 = 3.8 ringgit)
